* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 11/19/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 23 24 26 28 30 32 33 34 36 38 39 40 39 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 23 24 26 28 30 32 33 34 36 38 39 40 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 24 22 22 22 23 23 24 26 27 27 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 10 15 22 17 7 4 7 13 13 13 16 22 25 28 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 1 -2 -5 -6 -1 6 6 1 -4 -7 0 2 4 4 6 SHEAR DIR 137 151 174 189 196 189 180 217 282 311 308 294 273 273 278 275 272 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 143 145 147 147 147 146 144 140 141 146 148 148 147 152 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -52.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -54.9 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 56 56 58 61 61 61 59 58 59 60 56 53 51 46 45 46 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 28 32 31 30 27 31 28 27 25 6 -26 -39 -44 -41 -37 -30 -28 200 MB DIV 9 6 13 13 22 75 96 25 35 50 -14 -21 -28 0 -2 28 1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1627 1647 1666 1676 1672 1674 1659 1651 1641 1645 1620 1549 1445 1347 1269 1152 991 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.5 11.6 11.4 11.0 11.0 11.5 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.6 118.3 118.8 119.2 119.8 120.1 120.1 119.7 119.2 118.8 118.4 117.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 2 4 5 4 5 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 8 10 13 17 18 18 16 12 9 7 10 11 12 10 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 17. 23. 29. 34. 38. 41. 43. 44. 42. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 117.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 11/19/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.36 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 3.5% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 4.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 11/19/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##