* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 11/20/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 23 23 23 24 27 29 34 35 38 39 41 42 43 43 41 V (KT) LAND 25 25 23 23 23 24 27 29 34 35 38 39 41 42 43 43 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 23 24 25 26 27 31 35 38 39 37 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 17 12 7 5 6 11 10 9 8 11 16 19 21 24 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -4 -2 0 5 1 -1 -4 0 0 4 5 5 7 6 SHEAR DIR 161 170 176 176 192 305 298 327 346 324 287 267 271 270 269 256 228 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 143 141 141 140 139 140 142 144 146 148 148 148 147 145 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 62 63 61 62 60 60 62 63 55 46 44 46 48 46 49 49 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 34 26 19 13 12 8 20 15 -8 -38 -47 -49 -39 -37 -30 -16 23 200 MB DIV 32 28 35 50 65 66 72 68 47 -20 -35 -67 -25 -17 1 1 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 5 LAND (KM) 1758 1780 1772 1750 1731 1688 1645 1611 1568 1518 1464 1421 1379 1311 1210 1069 875 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.3 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.4 10.6 10.6 10.7 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.4 118.8 119.0 119.1 119.1 119.0 118.6 118.0 117.4 117.0 116.9 117.0 117.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 6 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 15 14 13 11 8 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 10 11 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 17. 24. 30. 35. 39. 41. 42. 43. 41. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. 9. 10. 13. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.3 118.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 11/20/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.50 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.7% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 7.1% 1.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.9% 4.6% 0.3% 0.2% 5.2% 4.5% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 11/20/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##