* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992023 11/20/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 21 22 25 33 40 47 50 52 53 52 53 50 49 42 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 22 25 33 40 39 31 35 36 35 37 34 32 26 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 22 21 24 28 27 26 24 21 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 11 11 7 6 7 12 12 14 16 26 29 30 39 42 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 8 9 12 15 10 5 3 0 2 4 0 0 -1 3 4 SHEAR DIR 63 80 128 148 194 227 208 210 193 203 216 227 252 251 260 266 273 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 162 161 164 167 157 150 145 142 148 152 149 149 148 137 139 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 8 8 8 9 7 7 5 6 4 6 5 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 52 51 51 50 49 53 55 59 64 65 63 59 53 48 45 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 18 21 15 7 32 54 26 6 -14 -25 -22 -41 -44 -72 -80 -118 200 MB DIV 0 5 -3 -1 2 14 5 5 -6 0 16 37 1 17 -8 -14 -18 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 5 6 0 1 0 1 -1 2 6 LAND (KM) 221 206 204 226 210 292 376 179 -41 -47 120 206 232 154 59 16 -3 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 13.9 13.7 13.4 13.1 12.7 13.0 13.6 14.4 15.5 17.1 18.5 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.1 73.0 73.3 73.9 74.8 77.1 79.6 81.7 83.6 85.1 85.9 85.7 85.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 5 8 10 12 11 10 10 9 8 7 5 5 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 112 108 102 86 77 54 43 28 27 26 32 52 121 133 97 81 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 4. 14. 24. 34. 42. 49. 54. 58. 59. 58. 58. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -5. -10. -14. -18. -23. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. -1. -2. -5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 13. 20. 27. 30. 32. 33. 32. 33. 30. 29. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.0 73.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992023 INVEST 11/20/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 97.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.60 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.92 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 7.4% 5.3% 3.0% 1.0% 3.2% 5.3% 11.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 8.8% 7.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 1.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.4% 4.3% 1.3% 0.5% 1.3% 1.9% 4.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992023 INVEST 11/20/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992023 INVEST 11/20/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 21 21 22 25 33 40 39 31 35 36 35 37 34 32 26 18HR AGO 20 19 19 19 20 23 31 38 37 29 33 34 33 35 32 30 24 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 20 28 35 34 26 30 31 30 32 29 27 21 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT