* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 11/20/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 36 39 42 46 49 49 52 52 54 54 53 51 48 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 36 39 42 46 49 49 52 52 54 54 53 51 48 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 37 39 41 44 47 53 59 62 60 56 51 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 9 4 2 6 8 11 10 7 8 13 16 19 19 22 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -1 0 2 2 0 -3 -3 0 2 4 4 5 6 5 SHEAR DIR 168 175 170 178 243 328 334 343 345 316 271 268 271 268 266 243 219 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 144 143 142 141 139 138 139 142 144 146 149 149 146 145 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 -54.6 -55.1 -55.0 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 61 60 61 63 61 52 44 48 50 50 50 51 51 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 25 17 11 6 4 9 12 0 -32 -54 -54 -51 -42 -37 -33 -17 26 200 MB DIV 30 38 51 63 73 68 55 72 7 -27 -56 -51 -8 -11 1 -8 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 LAND (KM) 1809 1826 1818 1799 1771 1737 1698 1664 1613 1558 1509 1476 1434 1360 1260 1114 915 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.6 12.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.8 119.1 119.3 119.3 119.3 119.2 118.7 118.1 117.5 117.2 117.2 117.3 117.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 6 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 20 17 15 13 10 7 6 7 8 9 10 12 12 10 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 9. 16. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 39. 39. 37. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19. 19. 22. 22. 24. 24. 23. 21. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.0 118.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 11/20/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.69 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.61 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 21.6% 17.6% 14.7% 0.0% 20.4% 16.6% 17.3% Logistic: 6.0% 41.1% 18.9% 11.5% 5.5% 6.0% 3.8% 15.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 21.8% 12.4% 8.8% 1.8% 8.9% 7.0% 11.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 11/20/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##