* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992023 11/20/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 37 43 49 53 55 56 55 56 55 53 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 37 43 42 32 34 35 30 28 27 29 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 30 29 30 28 27 30 30 27 27 27 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 5 3 5 2 9 9 14 14 23 24 34 36 44 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 9 15 19 15 12 8 4 1 1 -4 -1 -5 3 9 7 SHEAR DIR 88 131 166 191 249 239 284 189 170 194 213 228 249 256 266 262 261 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.6 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.5 28.5 27.8 27.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 159 158 161 167 163 151 147 143 143 145 142 142 133 133 144 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 10 8 8 7 7 5 7 6 7 6 7 5 4 700-500 MB RH 49 48 46 45 46 53 56 60 64 65 60 59 55 49 49 52 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 23 12 6 12 19 37 29 19 -12 -32 -57 -42 -62 -70 -73 -96 200 MB DIV 1 1 -15 -11 0 9 16 -12 12 7 31 9 19 -2 1 -13 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 2 4 5 0 1 3 7 3 11 15 LAND (KM) 175 149 129 125 149 223 324 217 -22 -110 47 72 -8 -28 -59 54 178 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 13.8 13.5 13.0 12.7 12.3 12.5 12.9 13.7 14.9 16.2 17.4 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.0 71.8 72.2 73.0 74.0 76.6 79.1 81.5 83.7 85.6 86.9 87.5 87.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 7 10 11 12 12 12 11 10 7 6 6 6 7 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 85 77 74 66 67 54 51 30 31 24 25 27 29 31 21 19 112 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 14. 24. 33. 41. 48. 53. 56. 57. 56. 55. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. 4. -0. -4. -9. -13. -19. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -11. -9. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 30. 31. 30. 31. 30. 28. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 72.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992023 INVEST 11/20/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.45 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.46 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.87 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 15.9% 10.8% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 4.6% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 2.1% 3.9% 12.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 11.7% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% Consensus: 2.6% 10.7% 5.4% 2.7% 0.1% 0.8% 5.0% 4.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992023 INVEST 11/20/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992023 INVEST 11/20/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 31 37 43 42 32 34 35 30 28 27 29 26 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 29 35 41 40 30 32 33 28 26 25 27 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 31 37 36 26 28 29 24 22 21 23 20 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 24 30 29 19 21 22 17 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT