* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 11/20/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 27 32 35 42 44 45 46 45 46 47 47 47 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 27 32 35 42 44 45 46 45 46 47 47 47 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 30 33 37 38 38 35 32 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 7 4 4 7 6 9 5 7 7 14 16 16 20 21 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 1 0 -5 0 -1 2 6 5 6 5 5 SHEAR DIR 184 187 232 301 332 357 350 351 307 246 237 257 264 267 263 234 214 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 144 143 142 140 139 140 141 144 146 148 149 147 147 145 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 60 61 60 60 58 62 60 55 48 47 49 49 49 49 49 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 9 7 7 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 22 12 12 9 10 24 5 -9 -40 -47 -44 -40 -34 -26 -18 4 17 200 MB DIV 41 60 61 41 57 36 77 38 -23 -41 -62 -10 -29 -5 18 -9 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 LAND (KM) 1801 1803 1786 1764 1731 1669 1628 1589 1548 1509 1471 1423 1364 1275 1158 1023 944 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.2 119.4 119.5 119.4 119.0 118.3 117.6 117.2 117.2 117.2 117.2 117.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 5 6 6 2 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 15 14 13 11 7 7 7 8 9 10 12 12 10 14 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 17. 24. 30. 34. 38. 41. 42. 43. 41. 39. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 7. 10. 17. 19. 20. 21. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.2 119.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 11/20/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.62 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 49.8 to 0.0 0.94 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.2% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.9% 14.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 19.9% 7.6% 4.1% 1.1% 2.5% 2.7% 14.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 13.5% 7.9% 1.4% 0.4% 6.8% 5.8% 4.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 11/20/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##