* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992023 11/21/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 29 32 38 46 52 56 60 61 61 61 60 58 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 29 32 38 46 37 30 33 29 27 27 27 28 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 29 29 29 30 28 27 30 27 27 27 27 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 4 2 4 4 5 5 9 12 18 22 25 31 38 46 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 17 20 16 11 12 6 4 4 0 -3 -3 -2 5 4 10 SHEAR DIR 136 165 175 249 213 262 181 189 183 202 217 239 246 265 264 266 265 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.4 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.4 27.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 158 159 163 167 160 150 151 145 141 139 137 130 129 135 149 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 10 9 7 8 6 7 4 6 5 6 4 5 3 1 700-500 MB RH 49 48 46 46 49 54 58 62 65 63 59 59 54 53 52 57 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 5 4 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 11 7 14 18 21 36 24 10 -27 -53 -50 -58 -101 -80 -49 -44 200 MB DIV 12 0 0 3 3 18 5 14 8 16 10 -10 2 6 -6 -8 23 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 4 5 2 5 4 6 5 15 17 22 LAND (KM) 149 126 96 130 134 244 298 120 -138 -85 28 -77 -168 -49 -23 135 309 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.6 13.1 12.8 12.5 12.2 12.3 12.7 13.7 15.0 16.1 17.0 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.7 71.7 72.3 73.2 74.4 77.0 79.7 82.4 84.8 86.8 88.0 89.0 89.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 8 11 13 13 13 13 13 10 7 6 6 7 9 12 16 HEAT CONTENT 74 69 62 61 63 53 45 29 5 26 22 23 2 13 15 13 80 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 14. 24. 33. 42. 49. 53. 57. 58. 56. 56. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 8. 5. 1. -4. -8. -12. -18. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -11. -10. -8. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 13. 21. 27. 31. 35. 36. 36. 36. 35. 33. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 71.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992023 INVEST 11/21/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.41 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.41 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.87 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 13.3% 8.9% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 5.9% 2.8% 0.8% 0.3% 2.1% 7.1% 25.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 11.4% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 5.3% Consensus: 2.3% 10.2% 4.7% 2.2% 0.1% 0.9% 6.2% 10.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992023 INVEST 11/21/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992023 INVEST 11/21/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 27 29 32 38 46 37 30 33 29 27 27 27 28 26 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 27 30 36 44 35 28 31 27 25 25 25 26 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 23 26 32 40 31 24 27 23 21 21 21 22 20 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 26 34 25 18 21 17 15 15 15 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT