* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 11/21/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 29 35 41 44 46 45 45 45 47 46 46 44 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 29 35 41 44 46 45 45 45 47 46 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 22 22 23 24 26 29 32 33 32 29 25 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 4 5 5 3 8 7 7 9 14 16 19 23 24 29 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -1 0 5 -2 -3 -5 -3 0 4 7 6 6 4 9 SHEAR DIR 182 205 290 322 329 335 358 315 302 242 255 271 265 261 242 212 208 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 142 141 139 139 141 141 142 145 145 148 148 146 146 142 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 7 5 5 4 4 3 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 61 60 62 61 62 62 57 53 46 49 50 52 51 54 53 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 16 15 6 9 20 18 -2 -31 -54 -55 -54 -48 -42 -29 -15 15 5 200 MB DIV 66 68 64 64 58 71 44 -4 -36 -66 -38 -21 -15 3 0 -9 11 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 LAND (KM) 1763 1740 1712 1684 1648 1616 1593 1552 1508 1474 1446 1419 1372 1271 1135 960 816 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.6 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.1 119.1 119.1 118.8 118.1 117.5 116.9 116.8 116.9 117.1 117.3 117.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 5 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 12 12 9 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 10 16 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 24. 29. 34. 38. 40. 42. 42. 41. 39. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 10. 16. 19. 21. 20. 20. 20. 22. 21. 21. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.6 119.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 11/21/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.70 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 49.8 to 0.0 0.82 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.06 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.6% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 5.3% 2.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% 1.2% 6.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 7.4% 5.3% 0.3% 0.1% 5.5% 0.4% 2.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 11/21/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##