* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992023 11/21/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 30 36 43 47 51 54 54 53 53 52 51 52 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 30 36 43 32 29 34 29 28 27 30 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 30 27 27 27 27 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 4 3 5 7 3 7 6 10 16 22 24 30 33 36 36 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 16 18 16 13 12 9 6 5 2 -3 0 -3 -4 3 11 9 SHEAR DIR 172 198 243 234 218 246 191 165 179 218 222 238 256 279 276 261 249 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.1 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 158 161 165 167 155 147 146 143 141 139 135 130 131 132 138 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.6 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 10 9 8 9 7 7 6 8 7 7 6 7 6 4 0 700-500 MB RH 47 45 45 48 52 55 58 62 65 60 58 55 52 50 52 61 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 6 18 15 12 30 33 19 -16 -46 -48 -51 -79 -97 -81 -30 -54 200 MB DIV 6 5 14 11 -3 21 16 12 3 41 12 3 -24 -12 0 1 28 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 5 4 3 3 4 7 4 17 13 10 LAND (KM) 149 118 122 168 165 314 341 72 -167 -10 29 -56 -136 -61 7 199 290 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.6 12.5 12.6 13.3 14.4 15.7 16.8 17.5 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.6 71.9 72.7 73.7 75.0 77.6 80.3 82.9 85.3 87.1 88.0 88.8 89.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 6 9 12 12 13 13 13 12 9 6 5 6 8 11 16 21 HEAT CONTENT 72 68 71 69 69 53 35 27 4 24 23 22 4 10 15 15 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 14. 24. 33. 41. 48. 52. 56. 57. 55. 55. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 2. -3. -8. -13. -17. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -9. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 29. 28. 28. 27. 26. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 71.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992023 INVEST 11/21/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.40 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.43 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.89 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 14.0% 9.4% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 3.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 2.0% 4.4% 14.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.6% 6.7% 3.7% 2.3% 0.1% 0.7% 4.8% 4.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992023 INVEST 11/21/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992023 INVEST 11/21/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 26 30 36 43 32 29 34 29 28 27 30 29 30 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 25 29 35 42 31 28 33 28 27 26 29 28 29 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 26 32 39 28 25 30 25 24 23 26 25 26 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 26 33 22 19 24 19 18 17 20 19 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT