* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 11/21/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 35 40 43 44 43 43 43 42 40 36 33 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 35 40 43 44 43 43 43 42 40 36 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 28 29 31 32 33 31 27 21 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 8 8 6 12 8 12 8 8 13 18 22 36 50 55 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -2 0 -1 -2 -6 -4 -3 2 4 8 6 9 11 9 SHEAR DIR 237 294 318 322 350 5 322 312 313 258 249 268 248 233 223 214 221 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.3 27.9 28.2 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 142 141 139 139 141 143 145 147 149 148 148 145 148 155 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 63 64 63 65 64 59 55 52 51 50 52 50 55 53 56 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 13 7 7 16 27 18 -12 -35 -54 -59 -56 -51 -32 6 35 14 -15 200 MB DIV 63 58 37 40 60 60 28 -3 -34 -41 -32 -3 34 43 62 69 48 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 10 9 5 LAND (KM) 1750 1728 1700 1660 1638 1613 1585 1544 1494 1440 1398 1311 1186 979 715 459 203 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.7 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.9 11.3 11.8 12.3 13.1 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.1 119.2 119.2 119.0 118.8 118.2 117.7 117.3 117.1 117.0 117.1 116.9 116.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 8 11 15 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 12 10 9 7 7 7 8 10 11 12 10 16 9 15 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 23. 29. 33. 37. 40. 42. 43. 42. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 15. 18. 19. 18. 18. 18. 17. 15. 11. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.8 119.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 11/21/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.70 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.7 49.8 to 0.0 0.82 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.6% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 17.2% 14.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 24.2% 10.0% 5.5% 1.9% 2.5% 1.8% 10.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 14.7% 8.5% 1.8% 0.6% 6.6% 5.5% 3.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 11/21/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##