* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992023 11/21/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 28 31 35 41 44 45 46 46 46 45 45 44 42 44 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 28 31 35 41 34 29 34 30 28 27 27 29 27 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 25 26 30 30 27 27 27 28 25 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 6 7 6 6 10 12 15 20 24 26 31 33 38 52 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 17 18 15 13 10 15 5 3 5 1 0 0 -6 2 10 7 4 SHEAR DIR 168 221 222 216 250 177 185 194 208 226 231 248 273 272 262 264 265 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.5 27.3 28.9 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 159 160 163 162 156 151 144 143 138 137 136 130 129 153 110 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -55.0 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 9 8 7 8 6 7 5 7 6 7 5 7 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 44 49 52 55 58 59 64 65 61 56 53 47 52 61 72 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 18 21 21 27 40 25 3 -43 -52 -64 -69 -103 -73 -57 -87 -43 200 MB DIV 4 12 14 11 23 39 12 11 20 35 2 -4 -18 -30 -20 27 12 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 2 5 7 2 3 4 6 3 9 15 24 55 LAND (KM) 116 125 149 157 231 332 164 -126 -33 62 -6 -62 -134 -80 117 306 -74 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.0 12.7 12.5 12.4 12.6 13.1 14.1 15.5 16.7 17.7 18.4 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.3 73.0 74.0 75.2 76.6 79.3 82.0 84.6 86.6 87.7 88.3 88.9 89.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 11 13 13 14 13 13 10 7 5 5 6 9 12 19 28 HEAT CONTENT 67 65 64 59 50 46 30 6 26 24 22 21 3 10 10 115 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 14. 24. 33. 41. 47. 51. 54. 55. 53. 53. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 8. 6. 2. -3. -7. -13. -17. -20. -25. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -10. -9. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 3. 6. 10. 16. 19. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. 20. 19. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 72.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992023 INVEST 11/21/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.41 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.90 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 15.8% 10.6% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 5.9% 3.1% 1.3% 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 9.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 2.2% 8.3% 4.8% 2.8% 0.2% 0.7% 4.0% 3.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992023 INVEST 11/21/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992023 INVEST 11/21/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 28 31 35 41 34 29 34 30 28 27 27 29 27 26 18HR AGO 25 24 24 27 30 34 40 33 28 33 29 27 26 26 28 26 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 31 37 30 25 30 26 24 23 23 25 23 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 28 21 16 21 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT