* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 11/21/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 29 33 40 45 49 50 49 48 47 44 37 32 26 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 29 33 40 45 49 50 49 48 47 44 37 32 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 29 32 35 38 40 39 34 27 19 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 6 7 11 7 10 6 10 18 25 35 51 62 71 78 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 1 -1 -3 -2 -4 -2 2 5 8 11 13 12 0 -16 SHEAR DIR 279 298 312 338 354 11 351 339 302 252 252 247 238 225 221 229 246 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.4 27.9 27.5 28.0 28.1 28.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 140 139 138 137 139 142 146 147 143 141 147 148 153 148 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -53.9 -54.5 -54.6 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 0 2 0 700-500 MB RH 66 63 65 64 62 59 58 55 55 57 57 57 54 58 64 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 22 31 25 2 -16 -44 -46 -48 -47 -32 11 29 8 -18 -60 200 MB DIV 38 31 28 48 57 51 47 9 -50 -49 -1 42 46 78 101 56 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 6 15 15 6 4 LAND (KM) 1724 1694 1676 1654 1641 1636 1603 1554 1476 1399 1298 1130 880 545 257 30 -345 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.6 10.8 10.9 10.9 10.7 10.8 11.2 11.9 12.6 13.5 14.8 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.3 119.4 119.4 119.2 119.0 118.6 118.2 118.0 117.8 117.6 117.3 116.5 114.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 6 9 14 17 18 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 11 9 8 6 6 8 10 10 8 9 13 11 13 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. 42. 41. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -17. -23. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. 0. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 8. 15. 20. 24. 25. 24. 23. 22. 19. 12. 7. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 119.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 11/21/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.71 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.66 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 49.8 to 0.0 0.85 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.5% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.8% 14.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 31.7% 13.1% 7.0% 2.8% 3.6% 5.1% 18.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 17.5% 9.4% 2.4% 0.9% 6.8% 6.6% 6.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 11/21/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##