* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992023 11/21/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 28 30 34 39 42 44 45 45 45 44 43 42 40 42 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 28 30 34 39 31 33 34 30 28 27 30 29 27 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 29 29 26 26 27 29 27 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 11 9 5 4 8 15 21 23 23 28 32 37 43 53 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 18 13 9 8 12 13 6 3 2 0 0 -3 -1 4 7 5 1 SHEAR DIR 209 217 231 262 281 206 166 192 228 232 242 268 272 269 259 263 274 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.3 27.7 27.3 27.5 28.8 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 160 165 158 153 146 145 143 139 139 132 127 130 151 110 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.7 -55.0 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 9 7 7 6 8 7 8 7 8 7 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 47 51 54 54 57 60 66 61 59 55 52 52 56 63 69 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 22 28 27 31 33 21 -12 -40 -34 -45 -66 -75 -41 -27 -70 -46 200 MB DIV 3 -1 7 27 31 47 24 25 36 -5 5 -13 -16 -19 -5 0 -4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -2 1 6 7 4 3 4 7 4 9 6 12 21 LAND (KM) 122 162 154 197 290 348 89 -123 57 61 -20 -96 -101 37 167 249 -5 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 12.9 12.6 12.5 12.5 12.7 13.5 14.8 16.3 17.4 18.1 18.9 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.7 73.6 74.7 76.0 77.3 80.1 82.7 85.2 86.8 87.6 88.3 89.1 89.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 12 13 13 13 14 12 9 5 5 6 8 8 11 16 23 HEAT CONTENT 70 67 64 53 50 38 29 4 26 26 22 4 2 12 13 113 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 14. 24. 33. 40. 46. 50. 53. 54. 52. 52. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. -3. -8. -12. -17. -22. -25. -31. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -9. -7. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 3. 5. 9. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. 17. 15. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 72.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992023 INVEST 11/21/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.43 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.92 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 15.4% 10.2% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 5.8% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4% 1.7% 2.1% 9.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 2.0% 7.9% 4.6% 2.7% 0.2% 0.6% 4.2% 3.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992023 INVEST 11/21/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992023 INVEST 11/21/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 28 30 34 39 31 33 34 30 28 27 30 29 27 26 18HR AGO 25 24 24 27 29 33 38 30 32 33 29 27 26 29 28 26 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 30 35 27 29 30 26 24 23 26 25 23 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 26 18 20 21 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT