* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 11/21/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 30 34 38 42 44 43 44 44 42 41 38 34 30 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 30 34 38 42 44 43 44 44 42 41 38 34 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 36 38 40 39 34 28 22 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 9 13 10 11 9 7 14 19 27 31 38 48 57 66 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -2 -3 2 4 6 8 10 12 6 -3 SHEAR DIR 294 327 351 358 351 360 326 323 267 250 260 251 240 228 221 224 237 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.9 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 142 143 143 142 142 144 144 144 145 144 144 142 145 150 153 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.8 -54.8 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 62 64 63 60 60 59 55 56 55 57 54 52 50 56 60 62 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 6 5 4 3 1 850 MB ENV VOR 18 30 37 29 26 4 -27 -44 -54 -53 -49 -31 -2 15 8 -10 -30 200 MB DIV 34 29 30 49 43 30 8 -33 -44 -19 30 17 22 37 75 77 64 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 12 20 16 12 LAND (KM) 1772 1765 1756 1756 1752 1732 1710 1674 1606 1523 1413 1246 1041 772 475 289 37 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.7 11.1 11.8 12.6 13.4 14.3 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.2 120.5 120.5 120.5 120.3 120.0 119.8 119.8 119.7 119.5 118.9 117.6 115.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 0 1 2 2 1 3 4 4 6 9 12 14 15 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 14 14 13 13 13 14 13 9 9 8 10 7 15 15 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 37. 39. 41. 42. 42. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 9. 13. 17. 19. 18. 19. 19. 17. 16. 13. 9. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 120.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 11/21/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.1 49.8 to 0.0 0.80 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.6% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.8% 14.3% 0.0% Logistic: 8.8% 34.0% 15.3% 8.4% 4.3% 3.9% 3.4% 15.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 18.1% 10.1% 2.8% 1.4% 6.9% 5.9% 5.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 11/21/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##