* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 11/22/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 30 34 38 40 41 38 37 36 35 35 33 31 29 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 30 34 38 40 41 38 37 36 35 35 33 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 36 37 36 33 29 23 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 12 10 10 13 8 13 19 24 30 33 33 42 45 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -2 2 4 4 6 10 7 12 7 SHEAR DIR 318 10 355 339 342 323 331 295 257 263 261 255 243 222 207 221 230 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.4 28.1 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 142 142 142 145 147 147 147 145 145 143 139 146 146 149 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 700-500 MB RH 64 64 62 60 59 57 55 55 59 59 56 53 48 53 54 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 7 8 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 35 28 18 6 -17 -36 -59 -58 -49 -36 -23 8 22 -15 -28 -43 200 MB DIV 24 51 53 43 16 -4 -8 -33 -27 -2 37 13 -17 6 83 86 49 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 3 7 7 LAND (KM) 1783 1779 1779 1781 1781 1767 1748 1702 1643 1578 1469 1317 1092 820 557 393 282 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.8 11.4 12.1 12.8 13.5 14.2 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.5 120.7 120.7 120.6 120.6 120.4 120.5 120.6 120.6 120.5 119.8 118.5 116.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 1 1 0 1 3 3 4 4 6 9 12 13 12 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 14 13 13 13 14 18 21 13 9 9 10 6 14 15 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 14. 21. 27. 32. 36. 39. 41. 42. 41. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -4. -7. -12. -15. -16. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 9. 13. 15. 16. 14. 12. 11. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 120.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 11/22/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 49.8 to 0.0 0.82 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.7% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.5% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.7% 36.6% 17.8% 10.8% 3.0% 5.2% 3.2% 16.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 19.0% 10.9% 3.6% 1.0% 7.2% 5.7% 5.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 11/22/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##