* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 11/22/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 28 31 34 33 31 29 26 26 24 24 23 23 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 28 31 34 33 31 29 26 26 24 24 23 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 30 31 30 28 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 13 10 11 13 11 10 16 21 31 32 32 38 45 47 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 -1 -4 -5 -3 1 2 0 4 6 6 6 11 4 SHEAR DIR 3 354 341 330 319 327 334 276 257 270 268 256 241 229 215 231 237 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.3 28.1 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 143 144 144 143 146 147 149 146 145 145 142 138 146 147 148 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 -55.3 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 59 57 54 55 56 62 60 56 50 51 52 54 55 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 36 34 22 5 0 -21 -42 -56 -52 -48 -34 -21 3 9 -9 -22 -42 200 MB DIV 44 36 18 6 -1 23 -22 -33 -19 22 16 10 -7 24 41 55 30 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 6 6 11 7 LAND (KM) 1763 1761 1761 1754 1748 1741 1728 1693 1649 1577 1477 1309 1066 795 547 370 261 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 11.1 11.6 12.2 12.9 13.5 14.3 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.6 120.7 120.7 120.6 120.5 120.4 120.6 120.7 120.8 120.6 119.9 118.5 116.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 0 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 6 10 13 13 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 14 14 14 14 16 20 22 12 9 8 12 5 14 15 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 31. 35. 38. 41. 42. 41. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -16. -19. -21. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 120.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 11/22/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.52 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.55 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.5% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 15.7% 6.3% 3.2% 1.0% 1.4% 0.9% 6.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 10.5% 6.0% 1.1% 0.3% 5.0% 4.2% 2.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 11/22/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##