* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 11/22/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 23 24 27 29 27 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 23 24 27 29 27 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 23 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 14 12 11 11 16 10 12 21 27 37 40 47 55 61 64 78 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -1 -3 -6 -5 0 2 4 1 9 7 9 -2 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 321 318 311 318 316 330 332 262 267 260 258 239 225 215 224 231 244 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.6 26.7 27.4 27.5 28.1 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 143 142 142 144 146 145 142 141 141 132 140 140 146 145 144 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 -54.1 -54.6 -54.4 -54.8 -55.2 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 0 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 54 54 53 54 62 63 59 53 51 54 55 56 60 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 30 8 -2 -15 -38 -61 -56 -55 -43 -27 -4 1 -19 -19 -18 -19 200 MB DIV 33 12 -1 2 23 8 -19 -42 -12 27 10 1 28 67 57 44 53 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 7 4 6 10 4 22 LAND (KM) 1692 1668 1659 1653 1661 1658 1643 1601 1530 1398 1197 922 604 348 224 15 -430 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.6 12.1 12.8 13.6 14.5 15.5 16.9 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.2 120.1 120.1 120.0 120.0 120.2 120.6 120.8 120.7 119.9 118.3 116.1 113.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 1 0 2 3 4 5 7 11 14 15 12 13 17 22 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 17 17 16 18 21 14 8 6 10 4 6 16 12 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 20. 26. 30. 34. 37. 39. 39. 39. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -16. -21. -26. -29. -32. -36. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. 2. -1. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 120.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 11/22/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.46 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.1 49.8 to 0.0 0.50 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.6% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 6.0% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 6.3% 4.1% 0.3% 0.1% 3.9% 0.1% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 11/22/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##