* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 11/22/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 23 25 24 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 23 25 24 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 22 22 21 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 14 13 15 13 11 18 28 39 41 48 55 63 66 76 80 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 -2 -3 -5 -5 3 1 2 6 9 2 -3 -7 -14 -8 SHEAR DIR 311 315 319 317 324 327 282 259 256 255 245 230 224 228 238 243 250 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.5 26.6 27.3 27.3 28.0 27.8 27.5 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 146 146 146 145 141 139 139 131 139 139 145 143 142 90 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.9 -54.8 -55.2 -55.7 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 54 52 51 49 51 53 60 56 51 47 53 51 50 52 55 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 14 1 -8 -19 -39 -52 -44 -46 -28 -2 14 -22 -20 -35 -46 -47 200 MB DIV 2 -1 -6 27 25 22 -26 -18 19 25 8 36 19 42 49 29 46 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 3 5 7 9 7 3 10 29 LAND (KM) 1684 1674 1673 1681 1687 1678 1647 1561 1427 1237 981 638 337 209 75 -223 -331 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.5 13.1 14.0 15.0 15.9 17.0 18.7 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.7 120.8 120.9 121.0 121.2 121.5 121.7 121.6 120.9 119.2 117.0 114.2 111.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 2 2 4 4 5 8 10 14 17 14 11 12 17 20 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 23 23 25 22 11 6 5 8 7 5 14 11 8 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 13. 19. 25. 29. 33. 35. 37. 38. 38. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -9. -16. -22. -27. -32. -36. -40. -46. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. -1. -4. -9. -14. -17. -21. -22. -23. -26. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 120.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 11/22/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.76 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.36 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.7 49.8 to 0.0 0.16 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.04 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.3% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.7% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 11/22/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##