* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 11/23/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 23 23 25 23 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 23 23 25 23 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 22 22 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 17 15 10 17 26 28 36 42 48 55 62 63 70 81 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -4 -4 -3 -1 0 6 6 5 9 3 -2 -4 -7 -13 SHEAR DIR 316 316 307 316 324 303 260 267 254 247 239 228 224 235 238 247 246 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.6 26.9 26.3 27.5 27.4 28.2 28.4 28.1 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 147 146 144 142 139 140 133 129 141 139 147 150 147 112 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -54.6 -54.8 -55.2 -55.5 -56.0 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 51 51 49 51 52 58 58 51 45 44 50 47 45 49 53 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 6 5 4 3 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -54 -59 -52 -34 -12 13 1 -23 -26 -37 -57 -35 200 MB DIV -11 -2 22 52 32 -10 -36 0 51 37 8 -18 27 23 13 6 17 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 5 6 5 6 2 -1 3 1 LAND (KM) 1674 1672 1680 1686 1701 1693 1620 1522 1361 1158 859 501 240 232 -26 -332 -132 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.8 13.7 14.6 15.6 16.5 18.0 19.6 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.8 121.0 121.1 121.3 121.6 122.0 122.1 121.8 120.7 118.8 116.4 113.3 110.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 9 12 16 16 13 12 13 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 24 25 24 15 7 5 6 7 1 12 7 14 13 11 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 13. 19. 25. 29. 33. 35. 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -11. -17. -22. -28. -33. -37. -40. -46. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -3. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. -2. -3. -8. -12. -17. -19. -21. -21. -24. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 120.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 11/23/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.21 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 11/23/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##