* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 11/23/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 22 23 23 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 22 23 23 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 16 14 12 12 20 28 32 40 50 56 62 66 65 71 83 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -2 -1 -4 1 0 6 5 7 4 -7 -9 -3 -6 -16 SHEAR DIR 316 309 314 321 321 279 260 259 252 245 236 231 231 238 242 248 248 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.3 26.2 27.0 27.2 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.0 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 146 145 143 139 139 137 127 136 137 143 146 147 146 115 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -55.1 -55.3 -55.3 -56.0 -55.9 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 51 49 49 51 51 57 51 46 41 46 43 41 42 47 51 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 8 8 8 8 9 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -9 -20 -31 -41 -62 -50 -42 -21 -3 17 -31 -30 -29 -58 -63 -29 200 MB DIV -2 12 26 16 15 -20 -9 48 58 13 7 -27 16 15 14 14 8 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 3 3 11 7 8 4 -1 0 6 12 LAND (KM) 1672 1679 1686 1693 1685 1645 1552 1425 1238 991 652 335 203 168 -85 -366 -89 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.5 14.5 15.5 16.4 17.6 19.2 20.4 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.0 121.2 121.4 121.7 121.9 122.2 122.1 121.5 119.9 117.7 114.9 111.8 109.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 3 4 5 5 7 11 14 16 14 11 11 12 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 25 21 16 8 5 5 6 2 4 10 9 13 11 11 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 19. 24. 28. 32. 33. 35. 36. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -6. -12. -18. -24. -31. -37. -41. -45. -52. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -11. -16. -21. -24. -26. -27. -29. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 121.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 11/23/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.76 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.4 49.8 to 0.0 0.25 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.05 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.1% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 4.3% 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 3.5% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 11/23/23 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING