* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 11/23/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 31 30 29 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 31 30 29 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 32 30 28 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 17 16 14 19 24 33 38 46 57 59 64 64 68 86 92 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -2 -4 -2 2 4 8 6 4 -1 -10 -5 -5 -22 -20 SHEAR DIR 309 314 318 314 301 273 269 260 252 240 231 227 236 243 253 252 254 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.5 26.4 25.9 27.0 26.8 27.7 28.0 27.9 24.2 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 147 145 141 138 138 128 125 136 133 142 145 145 107 132 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.6 -54.5 -55.0 -55.4 -55.4 -55.6 -56.1 -55.8 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 2 1 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 51 51 51 53 55 57 52 48 47 49 42 44 45 50 55 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 6 5 3 4 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -32 -42 -55 -69 -69 -56 -40 -9 7 -20 -39 -22 -28 -46 -32 -49 200 MB DIV 2 -6 -20 0 -5 -4 29 40 37 17 -7 37 18 12 5 0 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 6 9 5 3 -2 -2 1 5 2 LAND (KM) 1690 1696 1702 1701 1685 1612 1514 1359 1144 846 491 215 171 -7 -290 -195 172 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.8 14.7 15.7 16.8 18.3 19.9 21.1 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.9 121.1 121.4 121.7 121.9 122.1 121.8 120.8 119.0 116.5 113.5 110.7 108.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 4 5 4 6 8 12 16 16 12 12 13 14 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 24 23 16 7 5 5 4 0 6 3 10 9 9 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -10. -17. -24. -31. -37. -43. -47. -50. -59. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -2. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -4. -8. -16. -22. -26. -28. -29. -31. -38. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.8 120.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 11/23/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.71 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.40 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.8 49.8 to 0.0 0.72 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 15.6% 12.8% 10.4% 0.0% 13.7% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 5.6% 1.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.4% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 7.3% 4.8% 3.7% 0.3% 4.7% 3.6% 0.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 11/23/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##