* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 11/23/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 44 45 46 48 53 58 61 60 61 73 89 95 85 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 44 45 46 48 53 58 61 60 61 73 50 41 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 36 36 38 40 42 43 43 42 44 51 41 39 39 Storm Type EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 40 37 28 19 21 22 25 22 22 19 23 24 34 38 31 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 0 1 0 1 -2 5 2 1 10 15 13 SHEAR DIR 222 218 232 222 215 217 224 218 190 207 212 236 251 253 250 247 260 SST (C) 26.5 26.5 26.9 26.9 26.0 24.1 22.6 21.2 18.4 15.7 14.9 14.2 13.6 12.8 12.5 11.8 11.4 POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 123 125 117 102 93 87 79 72 69 68 67 68 68 67 67 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.3 -55.8 -56.5 -57.3 -58.3 -58.8 -59.5 -60.0 -60.3 -60.4 -59.5 -57.2 -55.4 -54.9 -54.2 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.8 2.4 1.8 0.9 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.6 4.2 5.2 TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 3 4 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 41 45 49 53 59 59 60 64 68 61 61 63 66 63 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 17 17 16 16 18 20 22 22 19 17 23 33 38 33 850 MB ENV VOR 89 86 83 81 59 52 42 48 26 24 56 89 96 105 138 235 206 200 MB DIV 67 41 41 40 69 51 53 60 59 16 22 36 26 14 22 31 -23 700-850 TADV -3 12 8 3 14 8 13 14 5 -9 -29 -26 -41 -18 -10 -18 -6 LAND (KM) 2218 2280 2374 2325 2162 1869 1674 1632 1340 1034 895 703 466 157 -61 125 355 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 26.1 26.1 26.6 27.4 29.7 32.4 35.9 40.0 43.8 46.2 47.7 48.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.4 41.6 40.6 39.2 37.4 33.5 30.2 27.6 25.0 22.0 19.6 17.4 14.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 11 16 19 20 20 22 23 19 12 11 12 15 15 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 12. 15. 19. 24. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -2. -2. 0. 4. 6. 9. 10. 14. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 9. 4. -7. -16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. 2. 5. 3. -2. -5. 2. 15. 21. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 18. 23. 26. 25. 26. 38. 54. 60. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 26.4 42.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 11/23/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.24 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.40 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 96.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.11 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 9.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.5% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902023 INVEST 11/23/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 11/23/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 42 44 45 46 48 53 58 61 60 61 73 50 41 30 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 41 42 43 45 50 55 58 57 58 70 47 38 27 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 36 37 39 44 49 52 51 52 64 41 32 21 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 28 29 31 36 41 44 43 44 56 33 24 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT