* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY EP202023 11/23/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 32 31 30 28 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 32 31 30 28 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 32 29 25 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 16 15 16 21 25 33 43 40 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -3 -6 0 0 0 2 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 314 318 306 289 278 269 265 259 261 272 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 144 142 141 138 136 135 132 130 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 50 49 49 57 52 46 36 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -39 -54 -64 -67 -48 -34 -22 -27 -20 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 0 14 6 0 11 42 32 -9 -35 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 5 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1726 1716 1707 1688 1670 1632 1567 1513 1428 1391 1391 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.4 15.3 15.8 16.5 16.9 17.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.5 121.9 122.2 122.5 122.7 123.1 123.2 123.0 122.6 122.5 122.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 5 4 5 4 3 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 21 13 9 7 5 5 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -7. -15. -24. -30. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. -11. -20. -27. -33. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.9 121.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202023 TWENTY 11/23/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.69 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.40 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.5 49.8 to 0.0 0.37 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 16.0% 12.1% 10.0% 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 4.2% 1.5% 0.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 6.9% 4.6% 3.5% 0.3% 3.7% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202023 TWENTY 11/23/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##