* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY EP202023 11/24/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 25 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 19 24 26 35 36 36 34 29 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -6 -8 -4 0 0 6 3 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 316 299 285 280 270 268 257 253 271 264 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 142 140 138 134 134 131 129 127 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -54.6 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 49 49 50 54 55 49 42 32 33 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 7 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -52 -67 -66 -62 -47 -21 -12 -22 -25 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 16 4 0 -5 30 58 25 -31 -23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 2 5 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1740 1727 1713 1691 1671 1621 1567 1506 1461 1424 1396 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.6 14.1 15.0 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.2 122.5 122.7 123.0 123.3 123.6 123.5 123.2 123.1 123.0 123.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 5 6 6 4 3 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 11 8 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -9. -18. -25. -31. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -19. -28. -35. -38. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 122.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202023 TWENTY 11/24/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.67 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.30 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.4 49.8 to 0.0 0.23 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 12.3% 8.8% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.2% 3.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202023 TWENTY 11/24/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##