* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 11/24/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 39 43 50 56 59 58 60 67 79 97 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 39 43 50 56 59 58 60 67 49 32 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 29 29 31 34 38 39 39 39 40 44 37 30 N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 14 16 22 19 26 24 18 20 31 28 35 43 47 48 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 3 3 1 3 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 245 214 218 215 233 220 201 220 229 251 271 279 283 296 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.9 26.3 25.9 24.4 23.4 22.2 19.8 16.9 14.9 14.1 13.7 13.6 2.5 2.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 124 119 116 104 97 92 83 75 70 69 69 70 67 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.7 -57.6 -58.2 -58.6 -58.6 -59.1 -60.0 -60.8 -60.8 -59.7 -58.0 -57.4 -57.8 -57.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.2 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 48 54 57 60 56 54 55 61 61 58 62 69 69 69 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 17 16 16 19 22 23 22 19 17 19 21 26 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 74 60 58 45 39 31 49 1 41 57 42 46 55 151 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 49 46 48 31 44 76 57 -1 14 12 14 0 0 -107 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 4 13 14 0 12 12 1 -7 -20 -28 -11 -4 19 -12 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2375 2389 2240 2076 1921 1668 1547 1305 985 774 625 463 90 -33 -335 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.6 26.9 27.4 28.2 29.2 31.5 34.5 38.5 42.4 45.0 46.6 47.5 48.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.8 39.8 38.2 36.3 34.3 30.5 27.4 24.5 21.3 18.5 15.4 11.4 6.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 12 17 19 20 19 21 24 20 14 13 16 21 24 28 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 16. 17. 21. 30. 44. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 10. 5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -0. 3. 4. 2. -4. -8. -6. -3. 3. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 20. 26. 29. 28. 30. 37. 49. 67. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.6 40.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 11/24/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.45 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.42 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.09 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 9.9% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.6% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902023 INVEST 11/24/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 11/24/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 37 39 43 50 56 59 58 60 67 49 32 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 37 41 48 54 57 56 58 65 47 30 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 32 36 43 49 52 51 53 60 42 25 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 28 35 41 44 43 45 52 34 17 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT