* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY EP202023 11/24/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 25 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 25 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 22 27 28 33 44 47 42 35 37 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -8 -6 0 -1 -2 2 0 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 301 283 280 273 264 264 260 261 277 290 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.4 25.3 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 139 136 134 134 132 130 125 114 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -55.2 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 50 53 56 51 46 40 32 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -66 -64 -60 -50 -37 -16 -15 -23 -31 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 0 -6 -2 11 26 58 -3 -50 -8 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 4 9 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1726 1711 1697 1678 1660 1606 1552 1522 1487 1470 1480 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.3 15.8 16.1 16.8 17.6 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.5 122.9 123.2 123.5 123.7 123.7 123.5 123.4 123.6 124.3 125.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 4 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 7 6 4 4 4 4 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -13. -23. -33. -39. -44. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -18. -29. -38. -46. -51. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 122.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202023 TWENTY 11/24/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.64 2.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.09 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.11 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.8 49.8 to 0.0 0.10 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.11 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 3.3% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202023 TWENTY 11/24/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##