* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 11/24/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 36 38 45 49 52 53 52 57 62 65 60 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 36 38 45 49 52 53 43 31 37 41 36 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 28 29 31 34 36 36 36 32 30 35 37 34 N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT SUBT EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 22 20 24 26 24 24 28 30 37 40 37 44 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 0 2 3 0 2 1 0 3 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 220 216 211 216 222 220 225 239 260 285 301 306 312 311 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.0 25.6 24.5 24.2 22.7 21.2 18.8 16.9 15.9 16.4 17.1 23.9 24.0 24.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 116 113 104 102 93 88 80 74 72 74 76 102 102 102 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -57.8 -58.0 -58.3 -58.5 -58.5 -59.3 -60.0 -60.4 -60.2 -59.1 -57.7 -57.3 -57.7 -58.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.0 -0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 52 55 56 55 49 45 50 51 42 40 42 43 39 40 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 16 16 20 21 21 19 15 16 19 22 20 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 71 62 48 54 27 40 48 39 24 6 -26 -25 -43 -73 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 54 55 18 37 43 75 21 5 -2 -25 -42 -36 -107 -233 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 13 13 -4 11 10 15 3 -13 -13 -6 18 27 30 45 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2387 2273 2128 1979 1841 1590 1462 1058 654 297 -52 -200 226 88 204 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.0 28.7 29.5 30.5 32.7 35.8 39.4 42.2 43.2 43.0 41.5 39.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.7 38.4 36.7 34.8 32.8 29.1 25.6 21.7 17.2 12.9 8.0 2.5 -3.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 15 17 19 20 20 23 24 19 17 20 23 23 22 21 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 16. 16. 17. 19. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 13. 13. 14. 13. 12. 10. 6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 1. 2. 2. -2. -8. -8. -4. -0. -5. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 15. 19. 22. 23. 22. 27. 32. 35. 30. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.4 39.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 11/24/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.42 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.38 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.10 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 11.1% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 4.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902023 INVEST 11/24/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 11/24/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 36 38 45 49 52 53 43 31 37 41 36 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 36 43 47 50 51 41 29 35 39 34 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 31 38 42 45 46 36 24 30 34 29 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 30 34 37 38 28 16 22 26 21 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT