* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 11/24/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 42 46 50 52 51 49 52 59 65 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 42 46 50 52 51 41 31 41 39 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 34 37 38 37 37 32 30 37 35 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 24 21 17 27 29 25 23 27 28 36 39 42 41 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 1 4 2 2 0 0 1 6 3 2 7 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 205 212 213 232 221 226 233 243 277 298 308 315 312 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.4 25.1 23.7 23.7 21.8 20.0 17.4 15.3 15.3 16.3 17.5 24.0 24.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 110 109 99 99 90 84 77 72 72 74 77 102 103 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.9 -58.1 -58.3 -58.6 -58.6 -59.2 -59.7 -60.6 -60.7 -60.3 -58.5 -57.5 -57.2 -57.5 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 3 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 53 54 53 51 49 48 59 52 46 50 48 40 32 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 16 16 19 21 22 21 17 13 14 19 22 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 77 67 56 52 39 35 22 28 27 0 -35 -43 -26 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 45 28 29 44 67 60 5 10 -14 -36 -35 -55 -177 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 12 1 11 9 19 13 4 -14 -11 0 1 30 21 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2308 2197 2063 1930 1802 1600 1324 922 518 184 -25 -86 204 -3 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.3 29.1 29.8 30.7 31.7 34.2 37.8 41.5 43.6 44.2 43.3 41.1 38.7 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.7 37.3 35.6 33.7 31.9 28.3 24.6 20.3 15.6 10.9 5.6 0.2 -5.2 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 18 19 19 21 25 23 18 18 21 24 24 23 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 12 CX,CY: 10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 16. 16. 18. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 7. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 10. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 2. 3. 1. -5. -12. -13. -6. -2. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 21. 19. 22. 29. 35. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.3 38.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 11/24/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.34 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.34 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.09 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 11.5% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.1% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902023 INVEST 11/24/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 11/24/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 37 42 46 50 52 51 41 31 41 39 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 39 43 47 49 48 38 28 38 36 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 34 38 42 44 43 33 23 33 31 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 26 30 34 36 35 25 15 25 23 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT