* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY EP202023 11/24/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 27 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 27 30 38 40 46 46 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -2 -4 -1 0 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 276 270 271 267 259 264 274 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 26.7 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 138 137 136 134 133 128 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 55 57 58 53 46 35 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 7 7 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -69 -71 -59 -53 -35 -7 -18 -19 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -23 -11 1 12 27 33 -22 -49 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 2 1 -2 3 5 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1696 1671 1648 1627 1606 1559 1536 1522 1495 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.4 15.7 16.2 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.7 122.9 123.1 123.2 123.3 123.2 123.2 123.5 123.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -16. -27. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -5. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -11. -22. -32. -43. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 122.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202023 TWENTY 11/24/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.7 49.8 to 0.0 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202023 TWENTY 11/24/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##