* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 11/25/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 45 48 50 50 49 51 52 57 61 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 45 48 50 50 42 32 34 39 43 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 34 35 36 36 35 32 30 34 35 34 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 20 27 26 21 26 28 32 30 38 45 49 50 56 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 5 4 3 1 1 -2 2 6 5 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 201 226 229 211 218 229 243 275 290 299 307 314 318 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 23.5 23.4 22.6 21.0 19.4 17.0 16.1 15.9 16.2 16.8 23.7 24.0 24.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 97 97 92 86 81 75 72 72 73 75 100 102 102 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.7 -58.9 -59.1 -59.3 -59.6 -60.1 -60.6 -60.1 -59.1 -57.5 -57.2 -58.2 -59.4 -61.2 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 0.0 0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 52 52 51 50 58 54 50 48 50 48 44 47 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 15 17 17 18 17 14 11 10 10 14 16 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 56 58 42 42 24 -3 11 31 21 5 -24 -79 -43 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 35 40 23 45 66 29 -10 -18 -32 -48 -62 -124 -232 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 12 13 13 19 12 8 -15 -18 -11 1 14 28 66 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2077 1976 1853 1773 1713 1402 1006 613 276 -33 -145 152 222 123 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.6 31.7 32.7 33.9 35.2 38.4 41.4 43.2 43.7 43.4 42.0 40.2 39.2 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.4 33.8 32.1 30.6 29.0 25.6 21.3 16.8 12.5 7.8 2.5 -3.2 -8.8 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 17 18 19 22 21 17 16 19 22 23 22 23 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 19 CX,CY: 15/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 9. 14. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 11. 10. 9. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. 13. 16. 17. 16. 14. 14. 11. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 2. 0. -5. -11. -14. -15. -10. -7. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 18. 20. 20. 19. 21. 22. 27. 31. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.6 35.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 11/25/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.32 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.26 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.09 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 9.6% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.3% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902023 INVEST 11/25/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 11/25/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 41 45 48 50 50 42 32 34 39 43 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 42 45 47 47 39 29 31 36 40 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 36 39 41 41 33 23 25 30 34 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 30 32 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT