* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NONAME CP822024 02/05/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 30 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 80 85 87 92 98 106 99 87 77 79 86 94 102 104 88 78 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 4 -2 -11 -15 -11 0 10 13 10 0 -11 -12 5 15 18 SHEAR DIR 282 279 274 269 268 263 258 258 262 263 264 268 275 278 281 281 266 SST (C) 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 26.0 25.8 26.2 26.1 25.8 25.1 25.0 24.8 24.3 24.3 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 123 119 118 119 119 120 123 120 125 125 123 117 117 116 111 111 115 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.0 -50.1 -50.2 -50.0 -49.5 -49.6 -49.0 -49.3 -49.6 -50.1 -49.9 -49.1 -48.4 -47.3 -47.0 -46.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 33 30 29 27 28 29 28 28 30 37 42 45 42 40 35 34 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -66 -59 -62 -53 -30 -6 -8 19 15 4 -25 -55 -54 -35 -4 15 200 MB DIV -47 -7 10 4 -1 -26 -79 -98 -100 -77 -9 78 89 41 0 15 8 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 10 0 -30 -40 -24 -10 6 18 12 8 -4 -12 -16 -14 LAND (KM) 867 789 782 808 851 969 1174 1360 1529 1692 1874 2118 2152 1689 1246 794 370 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.0 14.8 13.8 12.7 12.0 12.2 13.2 14.7 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 149.0 149.3 149.2 148.8 148.3 147.1 145.5 144.2 142.8 140.9 138.5 135.5 131.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 5 3 4 5 8 9 7 8 11 14 18 22 25 26 26 25 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 15 CX,CY: -8/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 21. 25. 26. 26. 25. 23. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -11. -17. -35. -63. -97. -125. -146. -162. -175. -184. -180. -168. -158. -144. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. -11. -8. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -16. -16. -16. -16. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -20. -28. -49. -79. -113. -145. -168. -184. -196. -201. -195. -182. -171. -162. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.0 149.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP822024 NONAME 02/05/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.43 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 126.3 30.9 to 7.7 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.5 49.8 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP822024 NONAME 02/05/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##