* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NONAME CP882024 03/14/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 27 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 72 75 77 77 76 72 79 82 94 93 96 91 91 99 90 90 99 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 1 0 0 5 7 9 11 1 2 -11 -4 -8 -23 -16 -16 -17 SHEAR DIR 274 271 273 268 266 275 294 297 297 290 273 260 255 249 256 260 241 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.8 24.9 24.8 24.4 23.6 22.5 20.8 21.1 21.2 19.7 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 126 123 125 123 122 121 123 115 115 112 104 93 75 79 80 67 65 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.4 -49.6 -50.1 -50.4 -50.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.3 -49.6 -49.5 -51.1 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 2 2 1 1 1 0 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 40 35 31 30 26 26 30 36 49 57 61 55 50 52 62 76 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -48 -51 -43 -32 -30 -30 -35 -35 -28 -32 -46 -12 38 26 6 63 200 MB DIV 39 49 24 20 20 20 7 36 23 43 57 35 23 27 47 70 111 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -7 -4 0 0 3 6 5 3 14 4 0 -10 57 79 34 LAND (KM) 1256 1240 1295 1359 1431 1577 1781 2040 2364 1951 1408 848 270 -60 -386 -155 -293 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.4 11.4 11.8 12.8 14.1 15.9 18.0 20.3 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 146.0 146.1 145.6 145.0 144.4 142.7 140.2 137.0 133.3 128.9 123.9 118.8 113.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 6 6 7 10 14 18 21 25 26 27 29 30 32 28 22 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 819 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 16. 22. 28. 32. 34. 34. 30. 26. 21. 19. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -10. -17. -34. -63. -93. -120. -139. -152. -159. -162. -156. -147. -147. -146. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -5. -3. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -3. -6. -6. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -16. -16. -16. -16. -14. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -14. -22. -42. -70. -95. -117. -131. -141. -149. -154. -155. -150. -148. -141. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.0 146.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP882024 NONAME 03/14/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 104.7 30.9 to 7.7 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 278.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 37.8 to 2.1 1.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP882024 NONAME 03/14/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##