* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NONAME CP882024 03/21/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 26 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 56 59 57 56 41 50 51 49 44 48 50 44 48 47 50 55 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 12 9 14 23 11 11 12 13 15 5 1 -1 -2 -1 -4 -12 SHEAR DIR 287 298 301 305 301 291 297 306 301 294 302 315 307 284 272 271 277 SST (C) 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 124 125 126 128 129 129 131 130 130 130 129 126 125 125 124 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -50.1 -50.3 -50.5 -50.5 -50.2 -50.7 -50.7 -50.9 -51.2 -52.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 1.8 2.2 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 8 6 6 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 22 17 17 19 19 23 31 37 49 57 63 65 60 53 48 40 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 8 17 20 12 0 0 -25 -36 -28 -20 -29 -43 -24 -23 -21 -11 200 MB DIV -57 -72 -69 -72 -61 -91 -40 -41 -39 0 -21 -3 -50 -71 -62 -68 -51 700-850 TADV -14 -13 -10 -12 1 -4 4 0 0 0 1 4 11 6 4 4 6 LAND (KM) 727 757 797 825 869 954 1045 1102 1144 1162 1101 999 913 883 897 976 1057 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.3 13.8 13.3 12.8 11.8 10.9 10.6 10.4 10.4 11.0 12.0 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 160.7 161.0 161.0 160.8 160.8 160.7 160.8 161.3 161.7 162.0 161.9 161.7 161.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 5 5 5 6 4 3 2 1 5 6 5 3 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 4 6 6 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 856 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 30. 32. 32. 30. 26. 22. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -5. -7. -17. -35. -55. -72. -83. -93. -99. -101. -95. -86. -78. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -16. -16. -16. -16. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -15. -28. -43. -58. -69. -78. -83. -88. -87. -84. -76. -70. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.4 160.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP882024 NONAME 03/21/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.50 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 83.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 318.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -66.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 49.8 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP882024 NONAME 03/21/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##