* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NONAME CP882024 03/22/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 53 58 55 50 49 47 42 37 34 36 34 32 27 33 33 34 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 7 16 27 27 26 28 26 24 20 19 13 9 6 2 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 306 321 326 323 320 313 313 303 294 284 292 288 282 264 258 254 254 SST (C) 25.7 25.8 26.2 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 28.0 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 124 129 131 135 141 141 140 138 139 139 137 136 137 143 147 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.3 -50.6 -50.6 -50.4 -50.5 -50.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 15 13 15 14 14 22 28 35 43 51 56 59 56 55 46 45 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 2 3 1 -2 12 6 -4 -6 -12 -18 -10 -40 -13 -2 20 10 200 MB DIV -58 -61 -80 -97 -91 -88 -98 -70 -30 -15 -19 -49 -71 -40 -5 13 -18 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -4 -2 0 0 8 2 3 1 1 4 3 1 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 715 764 823 898 982 1171 1353 1493 1586 1617 1562 1499 1443 1449 1504 1617 1698 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.0 14.5 13.8 13.0 11.3 9.9 9.0 8.5 8.3 8.7 9.1 9.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 161.2 161.7 162.0 162.3 162.6 163.3 164.2 165.1 165.8 166.0 165.7 165.3 165.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 7 8 9 9 7 5 2 0 3 3 2 3 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 2 3 7 27 31 37 42 33 30 30 30 27 41 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 822 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 14. 22. 28. 32. 36. 38. 39. 39. 36. 33. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -16. -32. -50. -64. -73. -80. -84. -83. -77. -67. -58. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -15. -16. -13. -10. -7. -5. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -2. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -16. -16. -16. -16. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -15. -29. -45. -57. -66. -72. -73. -75. -70. -64. -55. -48. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.1 161.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP882024 NONAME 03/22/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.52 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 84.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 347.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -77.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.99 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 49.8 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP882024 NONAME 03/22/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##