* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST AL842024 04/05/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 63 52 42 29 26 23 19 21 27 28 36 45 52 60 56 V (KT) LAND 80 74 63 52 42 29 26 23 19 21 27 28 36 45 52 60 56 V (KT) LGEM 80 80 73 64 56 44 38 33 27 22 19 17 16 16 15 N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 90 84 92 85 77 83 76 67 50 28 36 39 28 30 36 35 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -12 -12 -10 -6 -16 -14 -8 -5 0 -4 -6 -1 3 5 12 1 SHEAR DIR 274 281 293 298 298 299 305 307 290 266 248 240 265 291 295 297 295 SST (C) 18.7 18.4 18.2 18.0 18.5 19.4 20.4 21.3 21.1 21.0 22.8 23.1 24.4 24.9 24.9 25.0 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 78 81 82 82 83 85 85 87 85 84 91 92 99 102 102 102 105 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.2 -56.8 -57.3 -56.7 -56.5 -56.7 -55.8 -55.3 -54.6 -53.9 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 43 42 41 44 47 40 23 14 9 8 9 9 10 9 11 12 14 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -60 -92 -117 -116 -122 -124 -71 -13 7 23 36 49 43 38 10 -9 200 MB DIV 55 49 12 -31 -82 8 -54 -55 -86 -41 -41 -42 -29 -15 -35 -30 -48 700-850 TADV 71 42 83 91 99 51 -25 -51 -31 -30 -11 -4 -1 0 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 1190 1148 1264 1523 1858 1561 918 512 270 297 509 549 643 750 850 946 1040 LAT (DEG N) 35.9 36.5 36.5 36.0 35.1 33.0 30.3 27.0 23.3 20.2 17.8 16.3 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.5 50.5 46.2 41.6 37.1 28.6 22.6 19.6 19.1 19.8 21.1 22.4 23.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 30 36 38 38 34 24 20 17 15 12 9 7 5 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 923 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -11. -12. -15. -19. -24. -29. -30. -28. -26. -22. -17. -12. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -9. -21. -30. -37. -49. -53. -55. -55. -49. -45. -45. -41. -40. -39. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 13. 13. 11. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -17. -28. -38. -51. -54. -57. -61. -58. -53. -52. -44. -35. -28. -20. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 35.9 53.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL842024 TEST 04/05/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 101.2 45.1 to 6.7 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -2.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 365.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 93.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.14 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL842024 TEST 04/05/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL842024 TEST 04/05/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 0( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 74 63 52 42 29 26 23 19 21 27 28 36 45 52 60 56 18HR AGO 80 79 68 57 47 34 31 28 24 26 32 33 41 50 57 65 61 12HR AGO 80 77 76 65 55 42 39 36 32 34 40 41 49 58 65 73 69 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 60 47 44 41 37 39 45 46 54 63 70 78 74 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT