* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST AL842024 04/05/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 88 67 49 35 22 26 30 32 36 44 46 58 69 78 89 87 V (KT) LAND 100 88 67 49 35 22 26 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 100 94 84 72 62 49 44 42 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 31 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 88 91 89 83 77 62 43 40 35 50 39 44 39 41 32 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -10 -13 -16 -15 -7 -3 5 2 7 2 14 8 -1 0 -2 4 4 SHEAR DIR 278 278 281 292 294 308 300 302 287 317 331 331 353 5 23 27 14 SST (C) 18.8 18.6 17.9 17.6 16.7 17.9 18.2 18.8 17.2 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.4 17.9 18.1 17.5 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 78 82 82 82 80 82 80 78 72 69 69 70 71 74 75 74 83 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.1 -56.7 -56.1 -55.9 -56.4 -57.4 -58.6 -59.2 -59.4 -59.7 -59.1 -58.3 -57.2 -55.9 -55.2 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 4 0 6 0 3 0 5 700-500 MB RH 41 43 52 57 60 45 28 30 27 26 28 25 22 17 16 14 14 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -39 -51 -54 -66 -63 -44 21 5 15 -12 -17 -39 -57 -86 -94 -102 200 MB DIV 82 68 27 -54 -57 24 -4 -31 -7 -73 -43 -97 -98 -84 -68 -39 -22 700-850 TADV 55 45 18 79 117 85 -12 -42 -16 14 9 7 0 -63 -14 -40 -31 LAND (KM) 1149 1114 1220 1517 1913 1232 588 127 -111 -238 -329 -379 -322 -275 -205 -92 203 LAT (DEG N) 36.3 37.0 37.6 37.6 37.3 36.0 34.6 33.3 32.7 32.1 31.3 30.4 29.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.5 49.4 44.7 39.3 33.6 23.0 15.1 10.3 7.2 5.7 5.4 5.7 6.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 32 40 44 45 38 27 16 10 5 5 5 8 11 13 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 924 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -6. -12. -16. -19. -24. -31. -41. -52. -59. -61. -60. -57. -49. -41. -34. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -14. -32. -45. -55. -64. -58. -47. -35. -23. -12. -8. -1. 2. 3. 10. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. 5. -1. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 8. 6. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -12. -33. -51. -65. -78. -74. -70. -68. -64. -56. -54. -42. -31. -22. -11. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 36.3 52.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL842024 TEST 04/05/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 98.8 45.1 to 6.7 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.40 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -22.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 384.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.53 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.10 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL842024 TEST 04/05/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL842024 TEST 04/05/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 0( 22) 0( 22) 0( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 88 67 49 35 22 26 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 18HR AGO 100 99 78 60 46 33 37 41 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 39 12HR AGO 100 97 96 78 64 51 55 59 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 57 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 76 63 67 71 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 69 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 68 72 76 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 74 IN 6HR 100 88 79 73 70 65 69 73 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 71 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT