* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GSTEST AL852024 04/16/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 70 67 64 59 55 52 45 55 61 89 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 73 70 67 64 59 55 52 45 55 61 89 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 73 69 64 60 54 51 49 49 50 53 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 24 23 24 23 28 26 36 32 25 21 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 0 -2 -2 0 11 8 12 12 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 265 271 280 279 280 275 281 265 275 292 298 321 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 18.0 17.7 17.2 16.8 16.3 15.7 16.0 14.9 13.1 9.0 8.9 3.6 3.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 70 72 71 70 70 68 69 70 72 72 72 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.7 -55.1 -55.9 -56.1 -57.4 -58.5 -57.8 -56.1 -54.3 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.3 2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 46 50 53 55 57 57 57 62 70 80 86 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 15 14 13 11 7 2 6 3 18 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 152 154 144 134 121 113 63 49 -18 -52 92 57 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 35 28 24 42 6 4 -4 44 45 20 -5 -67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 5 3 2 1 3 7 25 30 24 43 70 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1652 1652 1613 1613 1635 1711 1738 1699 1478 1130 383 166 603 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.5 36.1 36.9 37.7 38.5 39.9 41.2 43.3 47.2 53.3 60.0 65.5 69.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.3 29.4 30.2 30.2 29.4 27.1 20.1 10.0 3.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 8 8 9 7 8 14 26 36 40 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 776 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -5. -10. -13. -15. -18. -22. -28. -34. -34. -30. -26. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -4. -1. 4. 12. 21. 27. 34. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 16. 19. 21. 21. 17. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -15. -24. -21. -27. -6. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -23. -30. -20. -14. 14. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 35.5 28.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL852024 GSTEST 04/16/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.32 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -9.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 401.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.09 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL852024 GSTEST 04/16/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 73 70 67 64 59 55 52 45 55 61 89 92 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 71 68 65 60 56 53 46 56 62 90 93 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 68 65 60 56 53 46 56 62 90 93 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 62 57 53 50 43 53 59 87 90 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT