* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GSTEST AL852024 04/16/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 79 76 72 66 61 62 75 72 71 84 92 99 105 110 102 V (KT) LAND 85 84 79 76 72 66 61 62 75 72 71 84 92 99 80 84 77 V (KT) LGEM 85 82 76 69 64 58 55 58 61 55 51 52 50 49 44 47 49 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 21 23 21 24 23 26 21 13 15 25 28 23 16 16 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 -4 0 0 2 -2 27 28 7 20 36 22 18 5 SHEAR DIR 265 272 276 276 269 260 260 284 280 227 228 231 250 304 347 349 299 SST (C) 17.4 17.0 16.4 15.9 15.6 15.6 15.1 12.3 6.4 6.7 6.4 4.7 6.4 2.5 7.6 9.1 10.4 POT. INT. (KT) 72 71 71 71 70 70 71 71 68 70 68 61 65 66 67 68 66 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -55.3 -55.7 -55.7 -56.1 -56.4 -55.4 -53.9 -51.4 -49.2 -48.6 -50.7 -53.9 -55.4 -56.3 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 3.6 3.9 3.9 4.1 3.1 2.6 1.8 2.5 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 47 51 55 58 60 61 73 75 72 77 62 64 49 46 42 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 15 15 13 10 11 17 14 9 13 14 12 10 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 134 125 109 100 105 67 60 50 114 135 227 140 84 107 6 -33 -2 200 MB DIV 40 35 10 41 32 22 18 47 46 50 -63 -106 -121 -32 13 -16 -3 700-850 TADV 4 4 3 2 5 9 16 1 -20 -52 8 20 -9 38 -11 -30 -18 LAND (KM) 1542 1492 1507 1574 1649 1796 1579 1355 1290 761 275 487 409 87 87 506 522 LAT (DEG N) 36.3 37.2 38.3 39.4 40.3 41.9 44.0 48.2 53.4 59.1 65.3 68.6 68.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.7 26.4 26.8 27.7 28.8 31.3 32.9 34.5 36.1 33.1 30.3 33.0 30.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 13 13 11 16 26 26 33 25 7 15 23 20 23 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -6. -11. -15. -18. -22. -28. -35. -41. -42. -39. -36. -30. -17. -7. 3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -4. 1. 8. 17. 26. 33. 40. 43. 43. 48. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -4. -5. -6. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 17. 21. 22. 20. 14. 8. 2. -3. -17. -27. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -4. -10. -18. -13. -13. -16. -19. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -6. -9. -12. -19. -24. -23. -10. -13. -14. -1. 7. 14. 20. 25. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 36.3 26.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL852024 GSTEST 04/16/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -18.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 443.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.09 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL852024 GSTEST 04/16/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 7( 16) 4( 20) 3( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 84 79 76 72 66 61 62 75 72 71 84 92 99 80 84 77 18HR AGO 85 84 79 76 72 66 61 62 75 72 71 84 92 99 80 84 77 12HR AGO 85 82 81 78 74 68 63 64 77 74 73 86 94 101 82 86 79 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 71 65 60 61 74 71 70 83 91 98 79 83 76 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 60 55 56 69 66 65 78 86 93 74 78 71 IN 6HR 85 84 75 69 66 62 57 58 71 68 67 80 88 95 76 80 73 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT