* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST EP802024 04/17/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 82 80 77 64 48 32 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 80 82 80 77 64 48 32 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 81 83 80 76 66 53 39 26 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 6 4 7 13 31 40 46 51 56 61 50 49 51 47 43 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 12 17 19 9 8 5 4 3 8 24 20 11 11 16 17 SHEAR DIR 305 296 263 246 237 251 265 270 261 264 266 259 243 246 245 236 242 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.9 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 155 154 153 152 148 146 144 149 151 150 149 146 144 144 142 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -52.0 -52.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 66 66 66 63 56 57 56 62 66 68 67 70 62 65 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 9 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 14 11 18 20 15 -3 0 -8 -14 -15 -24 -12 -2 -11 1 7 11 200 MB DIV 21 61 74 76 82 -18 -26 19 0 8 7 8 15 27 51 94 25 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -3 0 3 3 1 5 5 1 2 5 8 6 7 5 LAND (KM) 2408 2331 2243 2158 2061 1835 1644 1481 1324 1208 1169 1177 1244 1328 1438 1483 1484 LAT (DEG N) 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.9 8.3 8.4 8.6 8.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.6 137.4 138.5 139.7 141.0 143.8 146.3 148.6 151.0 153.3 155.6 158.1 160.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 12 12 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 13 12 10 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 64 63 65 67 56 48 48 31 42 54 52 50 38 31 20 17 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 25. 25. 22. 18. 14. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -14. -29. -44. -56. -65. -75. -83. -85. -80. -69. -54. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. -11. -7. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 5. 2. -11. -27. -43. -58. -68. -79. -87. -89. -85. -76. -64. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 7.0 136.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP802024 TEST 04/17/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 348.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.60 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.17 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 21.7% 34.5% 24.6% 20.2% 0.8% 2.6% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 61.4% 29.7% 35.5% 24.1% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 27.7% 28.6% 20.0% 14.8% 0.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP802024 TEST 04/17/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##