* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GSTEST AL852024 04/17/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 95 85 77 69 53 50 49 43 49 59 66 75 87 92 95 89 V (KT) LAND 100 95 85 77 69 53 50 49 43 49 59 66 75 87 92 95 89 V (KT) LGEM 100 91 80 71 64 54 52 53 49 45 45 50 55 56 53 49 48 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 30 33 30 28 42 33 14 24 4 4 9 29 66 57 36 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -4 0 2 5 21 26 6 9 0 7 -2 3 3 6 SHEAR DIR 275 276 272 273 275 283 263 242 194 227 289 288 266 304 255 243 253 SST (C) 15.9 16.0 16.0 15.6 15.4 15.1 13.4 8.2 7.3 6.4 6.2 8.7 13.6 14.1 16.3 16.5 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 69 68 68 70 68 70 72 66 63 61 61 66 70 69 73 76 82 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.4 -55.8 -56.0 -56.7 -59.1 -60.2 -57.5 -54.3 -57.5 -58.1 -55.6 -56.4 -61.1 -62.4 -63.2 -60.8 200 MB VXT (C) 3.6 3.5 2.9 2.8 2.2 -0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 700-500 MB RH 54 53 51 49 51 51 53 64 56 50 54 55 49 49 52 58 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 11 5 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 124 111 99 88 85 48 -14 64 123 -2 -30 63 54 -53 -118 -54 33 200 MB DIV 22 -7 -12 15 0 9 47 66 42 8 4 36 3 -6 -13 12 47 700-850 TADV 0 3 5 8 9 21 32 -45 -40 18 15 -3 36 28 21 36 11 LAND (KM) 1776 1854 1920 1840 1762 1766 1475 1264 1332 1326 1230 1090 965 847 664 722 1178 LAT (DEG N) 39.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 11 9 15 26 16 10 6 6 16 19 15 18 25 30 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 843 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -8. -15. -21. -25. -30. -37. -47. -58. -62. -58. -54. -47. -37. -30. -22. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -12. -15. -19. -16. -6. 4. 16. 25. 29. 34. 38. 39. 44. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 17. 20. 21. 20. 16. 13. 8. 3. -10. -17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -11. -15. -17. -20. -22. -24. -25. -26. -26. -27. -27. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -15. -23. -31. -47. -50. -51. -57. -51. -41. -34. -25. -13. -8. -5. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 39.0 30.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL852024 GSTEST 04/17/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.40 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -35.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 396.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.09 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL852024 GSTEST 04/17/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 10( 30) 3( 32) 0( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 95 85 77 69 53 50 49 43 49 59 66 75 87 92 95 89 18HR AGO 100 99 89 81 73 57 54 53 47 53 63 70 79 91 96 99 93 12HR AGO 100 97 96 88 80 64 61 60 54 60 70 77 86 98 103 106 100 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 82 66 63 62 56 62 72 79 88 100 105 108 102 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 65 62 61 55 61 71 78 87 99 104 107 101 IN 6HR 100 95 86 80 77 68 65 64 58 64 74 81 90 102 107 110 104 IN 12HR 100 95 85 76 70 66 63 62 56 62 72 79 88 100 105 108 102