* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RITEST AL862024 04/17/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 77 73 69 58 47 37 32 26 22 20 21 25 34 40 46 V (KT) LAND 75 79 77 73 69 58 47 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 29 27 34 V (KT) LGEM 75 82 83 79 73 61 50 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 30 34 37 33 31 28 31 27 25 15 21 19 22 16 24 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 3 4 9 8 4 1 1 3 0 -1 -1 -4 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 218 219 223 225 225 232 245 253 260 253 242 218 204 192 189 190 218 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.9 29.3 29.7 29.3 26.1 26.4 26.5 30.6 29.2 28.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 146 145 143 143 149 157 165 157 115 118 118 171 155 147 137 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 6 7 5 9 5 7 4 7 6 10 8 11 9 11 700-500 MB RH 66 67 68 70 71 72 67 71 73 73 69 70 66 66 58 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 10 13 11 16 8 1 -4 15 14 11 16 23 31 23 23 30 200 MB DIV 76 97 106 87 85 77 41 15 60 105 97 48 47 50 50 -32 7 700-850 TADV 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 5 1 0 1 4 4 LAND (KM) 122 119 78 64 39 28 19 -43 -143 -242 -190 -170 -159 -18 -80 -62 115 LAT (DEG N) 5.6 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.4 6.6 7.2 7.7 8.4 9.0 9.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.4 51.9 52.7 53.5 54.3 55.8 57.3 59.0 61.1 63.3 65.5 67.4 69.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 8 8 7 7 8 10 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 85 88 65 49 43 42 43 7 5 4 0 1 1 92 42 19 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 431 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 13. 18. 24. 27. 30. 31. 33. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -16. -20. -29. -37. -47. -55. -63. -66. -68. -66. -65. -58. -59. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 2. -2. -6. -17. -28. -38. -43. -49. -53. -55. -54. -50. -41. -35. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 5.6 51.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL862024 RITEST 04/17/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 11.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.02 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 66.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.41 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.37 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.55 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.9% 33.0% 23.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.1% 7.4% 3.2% 1.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 5.8% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.9% 13.9% 8.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL862024 RITEST 04/17/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL862024 RITEST 04/17/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 79 77 73 69 58 47 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 29 27 34 18HR AGO 75 74 72 68 64 53 42 29 24 22 22 22 22 22 24 22 29 12HR AGO 75 72 71 67 63 52 41 28 23 21 21 21 21 21 23 21 28 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 61 50 39 26 21 19 19 19 19 19 21 19 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT