* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST CP892024 04/17/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 69 58 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 75 69 58 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 78 73 63 52 34 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 34 37 45 52 58 68 75 86 86 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 15 21 18 15 11 5 0 -3 -3 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 243 241 255 270 264 261 262 264 272 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.1 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 149 149 150 148 145 140 132 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.1 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 50 51 57 58 55 54 52 42 35 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -4 -4 -7 -14 -24 -15 -16 -31 -34 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 33 -10 -31 -33 19 21 31 0 -23 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 6 4 1 0 8 2 0 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1430 1393 1370 1335 1309 1322 1435 1396 1324 1282 1277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 6.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 153.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 13 11 11 10 11 11 11 9 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 65 60 53 52 52 41 26 22 11 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 8. 13. 16. 19. 19. 17. 15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -12. -22. -33. -57. -84. -109. -125. -133. -138. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -8. -5. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -15. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 11. 10. 8. 5. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -6. -17. -31. -62. -92. -118. -135. -146. -155. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 6.2 153.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP892024 TEST 04/17/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 66.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 556.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.53 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP892024 TEST 04/17/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##