* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST EP802024 04/17/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 75 71 65 50 33 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 77 75 71 65 50 33 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 77 75 70 64 50 37 25 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 14 17 24 33 40 51 53 64 68 60 62 64 74 75 72 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 10 12 10 3 8 2 2 -1 6 16 16 12 2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 281 252 241 240 251 256 262 266 267 261 270 254 248 251 259 266 276 SST (C) 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.3 28.1 27.5 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 155 155 152 152 150 148 145 144 147 149 151 146 144 138 133 133 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -52.0 -52.6 -52.4 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.1 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 61 58 58 58 58 64 65 64 63 63 59 48 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 14 14 3 -4 -12 -12 -15 -16 -29 -17 -15 -28 -18 -16 0 -8 200 MB DIV 62 54 44 55 9 -32 -6 -2 5 44 28 34 33 41 45 2 -6 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 2 3 2 3 5 2 0 3 3 0 3 4 9 LAND (KM) 2468 2367 2269 2193 2120 1935 1665 1442 1273 1169 1122 1081 1079 985 821 758 782 LAT (DEG N) 7.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 11 10 9 10 14 17 15 11 8 7 9 7 6 7 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 65 60 58 59 62 42 41 27 42 47 48 51 46 40 18 9 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 435 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 21. 22. 22. 22. 23. 22. 18. 14. 9. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -11. -22. -36. -53. -66. -75. -86. -96. -100. -96. -85. -72. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -15. -14. -11. -8. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 0. -4. -10. -25. -42. -58. -72. -84. -96. -104. -109. -106. -98. -88. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 7.6 135.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP802024 TEST 04/17/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.37 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 379.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.58 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.6% 12.4% 5.9% 4.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 8.6% 11.7% 5.2% 2.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.7% 8.1% 3.7% 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP802024 TEST 04/17/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##