* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST CP892024 04/18/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 85 68 49 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 85 68 49 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 91 79 65 53 33 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 46 55 56 60 66 76 79 70 56 49 44 39 33 32 33 48 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 19 14 15 12 8 0 1 10 22 22 18 17 17 14 15 4 5 SHEAR DIR 258 271 271 264 260 265 265 259 250 253 250 250 247 256 262 279 265 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.1 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 148 147 146 142 143 145 146 147 148 150 151 150 145 148 147 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 56 57 53 50 52 54 57 50 52 53 56 59 60 63 63 62 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -14 -26 -33 -28 -19 -15 -1 -4 -9 -3 -1 6 13 -4 -24 -20 200 MB DIV -32 -29 -6 2 8 29 27 22 19 22 52 16 60 61 32 24 35 700-850 TADV 3 0 -2 0 9 9 -2 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 -2 1 0 LAND (KM) 1295 1293 1294 1307 1338 1396 1478 1552 1670 1800 1969 2150 2360 2540 2630 2731 2766 LAT (DEG N) 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.7 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.0 8.9 8.7 8.6 8.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 158.5 159.8 160.8 161.7 162.6 164.2 165.5 166.9 168.4 170.4 172.6 174.9 177.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 10 9 9 7 7 7 9 10 11 12 12 10 10 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 47 40 34 31 31 22 18 22 34 41 30 32 59 81 34 52 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -10. -25. -41. -58. -92. -123. -142. -145. -140. -136. -136. -129. -115. -94. -73. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. -16. -14. -11. -8. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -11. -10. -7. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -26. -46. -66. -105. -138. -162. -170. -167. -164. -165. -158. -145. -125. -107. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 7.6 158.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP892024 TEST 04/18/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.15 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 86.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 710.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.12 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.4 49.8 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP892024 TEST 04/18/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##