* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST EP802024 04/18/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 83 73 59 44 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 83 73 59 44 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 86 77 65 54 35 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 29 35 41 46 52 67 72 82 83 82 88 79 85 87 89 88 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 13 9 6 7 5 -2 -3 -11 -7 -3 -11 1 -12 -11 -13 -10 SHEAR DIR 244 249 252 255 255 256 264 267 262 268 259 261 262 263 265 258 259 SST (C) 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.2 26.0 26.4 26.4 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 134 131 124 123 127 127 124 122 122 120 121 120 120 122 121 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 55 49 48 50 52 50 48 47 50 47 47 45 42 36 37 34 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -24 -36 -41 -48 -51 -36 -27 -33 -42 -35 -23 -26 -17 -9 -17 -21 200 MB DIV 44 -1 -7 -10 -13 -12 -8 -3 10 -2 3 12 8 22 9 40 35 700-850 TADV 5 5 4 2 0 -5 -1 0 -1 -3 -1 0 4 0 2 9 15 LAND (KM) 2317 2222 2124 2027 1939 1798 1648 1468 1288 1146 1054 994 973 947 931 884 808 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.7 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.6 12.8 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.6 136.2 137.0 137.9 138.7 140.2 141.9 143.8 145.6 147.0 148.0 148.6 148.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 7 8 9 10 8 6 4 2 1 1 1 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 10 7 5 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -20. -25. -30. -36. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -12. -21. -30. -49. -69. -87. -100. -108. -116. -126. -131. -128. -117. -103. -92. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -15. -13. -11. -7. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. -10. -11. -10. -8. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -17. -31. -46. -74. -101. -124. -141. -152. -163. -178. -188. -184. -173. -158. -146. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 10.0 135.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP802024 TEST 04/18/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.06 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 55.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 693.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP802024 TEST 04/18/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##