* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 06/26/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 28 29 32 33 35 39 45 50 56 59 62 65 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 27 26 26 27 27 27 27 34 39 42 46 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 22 24 25 26 26 27 27 33 39 46 54 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 25 22 25 22 14 17 13 15 7 4 6 5 3 9 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 1 0 0 2 0 3 1 4 0 0 1 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 293 294 275 278 287 265 287 268 308 287 357 88 99 94 109 128 137 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.5 30.3 28.8 27.7 27.1 27.3 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 153 154 157 157 162 173 150 134 126 128 149 146 148 145 134 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 9 8 9 7 9 7 8 6 6 4 5 2 3 1 700-500 MB RH 69 69 72 73 74 79 77 77 80 77 79 75 75 70 70 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 57 45 48 58 58 44 75 86 64 59 60 49 43 52 59 33 200 MB DIV 1 51 62 64 59 79 47 72 72 73 60 44 25 22 7 19 15 700-850 TADV -4 -9 -3 1 1 0 -9 -9 -11 -6 0 -2 2 -2 0 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 225 375 441 246 68 0 0 -136 -56 -136 -153 -19 70 192 275 376 459 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.0 15.9 16.7 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.1 18.0 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.6 77.1 79.1 80.9 82.5 85.4 88.3 91.1 94.1 96.8 99.4 101.7 103.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 26 22 19 17 16 14 15 14 14 12 12 10 8 8 8 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 52 80 39 28 32 27 31 5 19 7 2 3 11 14 14 11 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 28 CX,CY: -27/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 810 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 42. 46. 47. 49. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 14. 20. 25. 31. 34. 37. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 74.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 06/26/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.39 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.89 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 14.2% 9.1% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 3.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 3.0% 5.4% 21.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 3.0% Consensus: 1.4% 6.4% 3.5% 2.4% 0.1% 1.1% 4.8% 8.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 06/26/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 06/26/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 24 25 27 26 26 27 27 27 27 34 39 42 46 48 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 25 27 26 26 27 27 27 27 34 39 42 46 48 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 24 23 23 24 24 24 24 31 36 39 43 45 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 17 17 18 18 18 18 25 30 33 37 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT