* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022024 07/06/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 56 59 62 66 64 61 52 41 36 30 28 25 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 56 59 62 49 34 29 27 27 27 27 28 29 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 53 55 59 50 34 29 27 27 27 27 28 29 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 11 8 2 6 13 24 34 39 45 49 50 47 39 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 -2 -8 -2 3 3 6 -1 3 0 0 0 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 196 199 182 151 284 220 222 211 221 226 230 226 226 226 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.8 30.0 30.5 30.7 31.3 32.1 32.2 31.7 31.0 30.9 29.7 28.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 166 167 165 169 171 171 171 171 171 171 172 172 163 149 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.3 -50.6 -50.9 -50.7 -50.5 -50.3 -50.5 -50.7 -50.4 -50.4 -50.5 -50.7 -50.4 -50.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 8 11 11 12 7 8 5 8 4 9 4 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 56 56 55 48 57 56 53 45 42 42 42 40 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 17 17 15 17 16 16 13 9 7 5 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 0 -8 -17 -5 12 38 0 -2 -31 -12 -47 -10 -44 -9 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 21 -7 4 16 52 53 42 30 12 11 -10 -6 13 14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 9 6 0 1 1 4 11 1 -1 -1 0 0 4 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 360 415 310 232 165 99 -66 -203 -303 -400 -505 -627 -792 -952 -964 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.1 24.7 25.3 25.9 27.3 28.9 30.5 32.0 33.3 34.5 36.0 37.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.6 93.5 94.3 94.9 95.5 96.3 96.8 96.5 95.7 94.3 92.5 90.8 89.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 34 39 43 39 37 39 6 8 8 7 6 6 4 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 4. 1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -2. -4. -6. -11. -18. -21. -25. -25. -25. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 14. 11. 2. -9. -14. -20. -22. -25. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 23.5 92.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/06/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.67 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.61 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.78 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 29.6% 14.9% 9.5% 7.4% 19.1% 19.7% 18.9% Logistic: 8.7% 24.1% 20.7% 10.8% 3.8% 11.6% 5.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.7% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 18.5% 12.7% 6.8% 3.8% 10.5% 8.6% 6.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/06/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/06/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 53 56 59 62 49 34 29 27 27 27 27 28 29 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 50 53 56 59 46 31 26 24 24 24 24 25 26 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 52 55 42 27 22 20 20 20 20 21 22 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 46 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT