*                  GFS version                   *
                                 * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                                 * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                                 *  INVEST      EP982024  08/11/24  06 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND    20    19    19    19    20    22    25    26    27    26    27    28    28    29    30    28    28
V (KT) LAND       20    19    19    19    20    22    25    26    27    26    27    28    28    29    30    28    28
V (KT) LGEM       20    18    17    16    16   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        20    21    21    20    22    15    10    11    14     8     6     7     9     9    14    18    19
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     4     1     0     0    -3    -2     0    -1    -2    -1    -4    -4    -2    -3    -1    -2    -2
SHEAR DIR         51    51    65    74    74    95    68    60    67   104    80   104   135   141   146   158   152
SST (C)         29.5  28.8  28.5  28.2  28.1  27.3  26.7  26.7  27.1  26.7  26.8  27.3  26.9  26.9  26.4  26.4  26.6
POT. INT. (KT)   163   154   150   146   144   135   129   129   133   130   131   135   131   130   122   121   125
200 MB T (C)   -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
TH_E DEV (C)       7     6     7     7     6     6     5     5     4     4     4     4     4     4     4     3     3
700-500 MB RH     77    78    76    74    73    70    69    68    61    59    56    52    47    45    41    38    33
MODEL VTX (KT)     4     4     4     4     4     3     2  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR   -34   -32   -19    -3    -5   -10    -2    -3    -9   -11   -16   -18   -12    -2    15    20    21
200 MB DIV        43    26    14    -1    20     0    20    29     0   -28   -22    -7     8     0   -41   -12   -29
700-850 TADV       2     0     0     0    -1     1    -1     0    -2     0     0     1     1     0     0     0     0
LAND (KM)        321   316   334   345   387   464   557   547   584   657   774   869   948  1013  1029  1029  1036
LAT (DEG N)     15.3  16.0  16.6  17.0  17.3  17.7  17.9  18.2  18.3  18.4  18.4  18.6  18.6 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x 
LONG(DEG W)    103.5 105.1 106.3 107.1 107.9 109.1 110.3 111.5 112.7 114.1 115.7 117.2 118.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    18    15    11     8     7     6     6     5     7     7     8     6     6     3     1     0     1
HEAT CONTENT      31    30    24    20    17     8     3     2     4     2     3     9     4     3     1     1     1

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 20      CX,CY: -18/  7
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  410  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  19.1 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  26.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR):            0.0

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.    1.    1.    1.    2.    2.    2.    1.    1.    0.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -3.   -3.   -3.
  SST POTENTIAL         -0.   -1.   -0.    1.    5.   11.   16.   19.   22.   24.   25.   26.   25.   25.   25.   26.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.    2.    3.    4.    4.    3.    2.   -0.   -1.   -1.    0.    1.    2.    2.   -1.   -3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ    -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.    1.    1.    2.    2.    3.    3.    3.    3.    3.    3.    2.    2.    1.    1.    0.
  PERSISTENCE           -1.   -2.   -3.   -3.   -3.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -2.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -2.   -3.   -3.   -3.   -3.   -3.   -4.   -4.   -4.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.   -0.   -1.   -2.   -2.   -3.   -3.   -4.   -4.   -5.   -6.
  700-500 MB RH          0.    0.    0.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    0.    0.   -0.   -0.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY    -0.    0.    0.   -0.   -1.   -2.   -3.   -4.   -4.   -4.   -4.   -3.   -3.   -3.   -3.   -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY  -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.    0.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    2.    2.    2.    1.    1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE     -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -2.   -3.   -2.   -2.   -1.    0.    1.    2.
  850-700 T ADVEC       -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -0.   -0.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -3.   -3.   -5.   -6.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -3.   -2.   -1.   -0.    1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    1.    1.    1.    2.    2.    2.    2.    3.    3.    4.    4.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -2.   -4.   -6.   -7.   -8.   -8.  -10.  -10.  -10.   -9.   -7.   -8.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT    -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -0.   -0.    1.    2.
  RI POTENTIAL          -0.   -1.   -2.   -3.   -4.   -4.   -3.   -0.    1.    3.    4.    5.    5.    5.    5.    5.
                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE          -1.   -1.   -1.   -0.    2.    5.    6.    7.    6.    7.    8.    8.    9.   10.    8.    8.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   20. LAT, LON:   15.3   103.5

      ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982024 INVEST     08/11/24  06 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor                  Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)         :  131.4     36.9  to  148.5        0.85         999.0
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT)      :   -5.0    -22.0  to   44.0        0.26         999.0
 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT)      :   29.4     34.9  to    8.5        0.21         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2)      :   50.0    800.8  to  -82.5        0.85         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)             :   20.4    -33.0  to  170.5        0.26         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (KT)           :   20.0     22.5  to  132.0        0.00           0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP       :   19.1     37.8  to    2.1        0.52         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2)       :   24.4      2.7  to  107.8        0.21         999.0
 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear :    0.0     58.2  to    0.0        1.00         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP        :   -0.7      2.2  to   -2.3        0.64         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     0.1%    1.1%    0.2%    0.1%    0.0%    0.4%    0.7%    2.4%
    Bayesian:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     0.0%    0.4%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.1%    0.2%    0.8%
       DTOPS:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
       SDCON:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982024 INVEST     08/11/24  06 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##