*                  GFS version                   *
                                 * ATLANTIC     2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                                 * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                                 *  INVEST      AL982024  08/11/24  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    30    35    40    51    66    74    83    93    99   102   104   104   102   103   102
V (KT) LAND       25    27    30    35    40    51    66    74    83    93    99   102   104   104   102   103   102
V (KT) LGEM       25    26    27    29    31    37    46    55    65    74    81    84    87    88    86    85    83
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        15    12    10    10    11     8     7     3     7     7    10     6    15     7    21    12    10
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -2     0     0     2     3     3     2    10     4     2    -1     2     5    12     4     9     2
SHEAR DIR         81    77    64    44    37    43   359   327   276   171   277   293   320   290   325   278   331
SST (C)         28.5  28.3  28.3  28.5  28.5  29.4  29.4  29.4  29.3  29.3  29.1  29.1  29.1  28.6  27.9  28.3  28.3
POT. INT. (KT)   146   144   144   148   148   162   161   160   157   157   154   154   153   146   136   141   141
200 MB T (C)   -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -50.8 -50.9 -50.2 -49.9
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   0.8   1.3   1.6   1.6   1.8   1.5
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     6     6     7     8     8     9     9    10    10     9     8     7     6     7     6
700-500 MB RH     67    66    68    66    64    62    62    60    57    57    57    62    61    59    53    44    46
MODEL VTX (KT)     8     9    10    12    13    16    21    22    25    30    32    33    35    36    38    41    42
850 MB ENV VOR    50    54    58    58    62    66    64    46    17    -8   -23    31    71   118   122   133   124
200 MB DIV         8    16    42    61    77    77    77    53    56   108    96   104    86    90    69     6    24
700-850 TADV      -2    -3    -7    -5     0   -10   -13   -25   -12     0    14    16    18    17    18    15     6
LAND (KM)       1201  1124  1059   975   732   322    68    79    51   232   375   556   686   896   897   855   850
LAT (DEG N)     12.8 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x 
LONG(DEG W)     44.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    15    17    20    23    23    20    17    14    11    10    11    10    10    10    11    11    11
HEAT CONTENT      33    35    49    68    56    58    46    74    62    63    41    33    39    23    16    25    30

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14      CX,CY: -13/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  653  (MEAN=620)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  18.7 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  44.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR):           18.7

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.    2.    3.    4.    6.    8.    9.   10.   11.   12.   13.   13.   14.   15.   15.   16.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.    0.    1.    1.    5.   12.   20.   25.   30.   34.   37.   40.   42.   41.   41.   39.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.    2.    3.    4.    5.    6.    6.    7.    7.    6.    6.    6.    5.    4.    4.    4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.    0.    0.    0.   -0.   -0.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -3.   -2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.    1.    1.    2.    3.    4.    5.    5.    4.    3.    3.    3.    3.    3.    3.    3.
  PERSISTENCE           -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -3.   -3.   -4.   -4.   -5.
  THETA_E EXCESS        -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.
  700-500 MB RH         -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -2.   -3.   -3.   -4.   -4.   -4.   -4.   -4.   -4.   -4.   -3.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.    1.    2.    3.    6.   12.   14.   19.   26.   29.   29.   30.   30.   30.   32.   31.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.    0.    0.    0.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    0.    0.    0.    1.    1.    2.    2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE     -0.   -0.   -0.    0.    1.    1.    1.    1.    2.    1.   -0.   -1.   -2.   -3.   -4.   -5.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -1.   -1.   -0.   -0.    0.    0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.   -0.    0.    0.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    2.    2.    2.    2.    2.    2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    1.    1.    1.    1.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -3.   -3.   -3.   -3.   -3.   -3.   -2.   -2.   -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.
  RI POTENTIAL           0.    1.    2.    3.    4.    4.    3.    2.    1.   -0.   -1.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -2.   -2.
                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.    5.   10.   15.   26.   41.   49.   58.   68.   74.   77.   79.   79.   77.   78.   77.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   12.8    44.7

      ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982024 INVEST     08/11/24  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor                  Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT)      :    0.0    -49.5  to   33.0        0.60           3.6
 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT)      :   20.9     46.9  to    6.8        0.65           2.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2)       :   48.2      0.0  to  155.1        0.31           0.8
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP       :   18.7     36.6  to    2.8        0.53           1.2
 MAXIMUM WIND (KT)           :   25.0     22.5  to  137.5        0.07           0.1
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP        :   -0.4      2.9  to   -3.0        0.56           0.7
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2)      :  103.8    895.4  to  -69.3        0.82           1.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)             :   40.8    -29.7  to  189.2        0.32           0.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)         :  121.1     27.0  to  143.0        0.81           0.6
 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear :    0.9    109.2  to    0.0        0.99          -0.1
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   2% is   0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  16% is   1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  10% is   1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   7% is   1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  13% is   2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     2.2%   16.1%   10.4%    7.3%    0.0%    0.0%   12.6%    0.0%
    Logistic:     2.0%    7.7%    3.6%    0.8%    0.4%    1.9%    2.9%    2.9%
    Bayesian:     0.3%    6.7%    1.2%    0.1%    0.0%    0.4%    6.0%    7.3%
   Consensus:     1.5%   10.2%    5.1%    2.7%    0.2%    0.8%    7.2%    3.4%
       DTOPS:     1.0%    5.0%    2.0%    1.0%    0.0%    1.0%    2.0%    5.0%
       SDCON:     1.2%    7.6%    3.5%    1.8%     .1%     .9%    4.6%    4.2%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982024 INVEST     08/11/24  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982024 INVEST     08/11/2024  12 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  25    27    30    35    40    51    66    74    83    93    99   102   104   104   102   103   102
 18HR AGO           25    24    27    32    37    48    63    71    80    90    96    99   101   101    99   100    99
 12HR AGO           25    22    21    26    31    42    57    65    74    84    90    93    95    95    93    94    93
  6HR AGO           25    19    16    15    20    31    46    54    63    73    79    82    84    84    82    83    82
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT