*                  GFS version                   *
                                 * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                                 * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                                 *  INVEST      EP902024  08/20/24  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    26    27    28    29    29    30    30    31    31    30    29    27    26    24    23
V (KT) LAND       25    26    26    27    28    29    29    30    30    31    31    30    29    27    26    24    23
V (KT) LGEM       25    25    25    24    24    24    23    22    21    20    19    18    17    16   N/A   N/A   N/A
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        25    29    28    30    31    27    24    14    24    10    14    16    23    35    35    38    39
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -5    -4    -5    -6    -4    -2     0    -3    -7     0    -2    -3     0     0    -1    -1    -5
SHEAR DIR         87    84    75    57    54    47    27    15    10   355   331   291   269   254   249   256   256
SST (C)         28.1  28.1  28.1  28.1  28.1  28.2  28.3  27.8  27.3  26.0  26.0  25.8  25.7  25.9  26.6  26.8  27.3
POT. INT. (KT)   141   141   142   142   142   145   147   141   137   124   124   123   122   124   131   132   137
200 MB T (C)   -52.1 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.9 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
TH_E DEV (C)       4     4     4     3     3     4     4     3     3     3     2     3     3     4     5     6     6
700-500 MB RH     60    64    68    71    71    73    70    68    59    52    42    37    33    33    32    34    33
MODEL VTX (KT)     0  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    70    57    58    53    50    37    23    18    11    27    26    31    32    42    35    27    19
200 MB DIV        47    39    50    52    56    73    58    20    -6     0    -9    12    28     2    20    30    15
700-850 TADV       0     0     0     1     0    -2    -4    -2    -2     3    -2     2    10     8     9    -1     1
LAND (KM)       2077  2062  2033  1999  1960  1859  1732  1601  1426  1244  1003   732   460   244   124    79   147
LAT (DEG N)     10.9  11.0  11.0  11.1  11.3  12.1  13.5  14.9  16.1  17.4  18.5  19.6  20.5 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x 
LONG(DEG W)    137.6 137.7 138.0 138.3 138.6 139.2 139.8 140.5 141.8 143.2 145.3 147.8 150.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)     2     2     3     3     4     6     8     8     9    10    12    14    13    15    13    11     9
HEAT CONTENT      17    17    15    15    15    18    22     8    14     0     0     0     0     0     4     9    15

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/  3      CX,CY:   1/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  795  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  20.5 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  37.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR):            0.1

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.    1.    1.    1.    2.    2.    2.    1.    1.    0.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -3.   -3.   -3.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.    0.    0.    2.    7.   13.   19.   24.   27.   29.   30.   29.   29.   28.   28.   29.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   -0.   -1.   -2.   -6.  -13.  -18.  -22.  -23.  -23.  -22.  -21.  -19.  -19.  -22.  -25.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.    1.    2.    2.    3.    3.    2.    2.    1.    1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.    1.    2.    3.    6.    8.    8.    8.    8.    7.    6.    5.    4.    3.    3.    3.
  PERSISTENCE           -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.    0.   -0.   -0.   -0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -3.   -3.   -4.   -5.   -6.   -7.   -7.
  THETA_E EXCESS        -0.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -3.   -4.   -5.   -6.   -7.   -8.   -8.   -8.   -8.   -8.   -8.   -9.
  700-500 MB RH         -0.    0.    0.    0.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -2.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.    0.    0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -0.   -0.   -0.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.    0.    0.    0.    0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    1.    0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -0.    0.    0.    0.
  850-700 T ADVEC       -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.    0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    1.    1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    1.    2.    2.    2.    2.    3.    3.    4.    5.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.    0.    1.    1.    2.    2.    2.    2.    2.    3.    3.    4.    2.    1.    1.   -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.    0.    0.    0.    1.    1.    1.    1.    2.    3.    3.    4.    4.    5.    5.    6.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -3.   -4.   -5.   -6.   -7.   -8.   -8.   -8.   -7.   -6.   -6.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -0.   -0.    1.    2.
  RI POTENTIAL          -0.   -1.   -2.   -3.   -4.   -4.   -3.   -0.    1.    3.    4.    5.    5.    5.    5.    5.
                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.    1.    2.    3.    4.    4.    5.    5.    6.    6.    5.    4.    2.    1.   -1.   -2.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   10.9   137.6

      ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902024 INVEST     08/20/24  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor                  Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)         :  116.8     36.9  to  148.5        0.72           4.3
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT)      :    0.0    -22.0  to   44.0        0.33           2.1
 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT)      :   31.1     34.9  to    8.5        0.14           0.6
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2)      :   82.6    800.8  to  -82.5        0.81          -4.2
 D200 (10**7s-1)             :   48.8    -33.0  to  170.5        0.40           1.7
 MAXIMUM WIND (KT)           :   25.0     22.5  to  132.0        0.07           0.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP       :   20.5     37.8  to    2.1        0.48           1.4
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2)       :   15.8      2.7  to  107.8        0.12           0.3
 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear :    0.0     58.2  to    0.0        1.00           0.9
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP        :    0.8      2.2  to   -2.3        0.31          -0.1
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  10% is   0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   7% is   0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  10% is   1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%    9.8%    7.4%    0.0%    0.0%   10.1%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     0.0%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.1%    0.4%
    Bayesian:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     0.0%    3.3%    2.5%    0.0%    0.0%    3.4%    0.0%    0.1%
       DTOPS:     0.0%    5.0%    2.0%    1.0%    0.0%    2.0%    2.0%   12.0%
       SDCON:       0%    4.1%    2.2%     .5%      0%    2.7%    1.0%    6.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902024 INVEST     08/20/24  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##